HOSE:TNH

• Beneish M-Score = -0.6967 (90th percentile among Vietnamese peers). The M-Score measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation; the company is more aggressive than most domestic peers, and the M-Score rose by +2.09 year-over-year (an acceleration of accounting signals).
• GMI (Gross margin index) = 5.0102. GMI > 1 indicates deteriorating gross margins year-over-year; a value this large is an outlier in the index and contributes heavily to the M-Score.
• AQI (Asset quality index) = 1.5487. AQI > 1 indicates rising proportion of long-lived or non-current assets (or reclassifications) that can be associated with lower-quality earnings.
• LVGI (Leverage index) = 1.4242. LVGI > 1 indicates rising leverage relative to assets, which can increase incentives to manage earnings.
• SGAI (Sales, general & administrative index) = 1.4643. SGAI > 1 indicates selling/administrative expenses rising faster than sales, often linked to cost recognition timing or reclassification.
• DEPI (Depreciation index) = 0.6575. DEPI < 1 implies depreciation expense decreased relative to prior year (e.g., lower depreciation rates or asset revaluation), which can inflate reported profit.
• TATA (Total accruals to total assets) = -0.0158 notwithstanding accruals-quality score of 100/100, accruals dynamics exist and must be reconciled with other quality issues.
• Earnings-Quality sub-scores: cash conversion 0/100, margin quality 0/100, revenue quality 0/100. These indicate net profit is not being supported by cash flow, margins are not of stable high quality, and revenue recognition signals are weak.
• Altman Z-Score = 1.09 (distress zone). This score measures distance to bankruptcy using balance-sheet and income measures and places the company in the distress band.
• Piotroski F-Score = 2/9. This measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 2 indicates weak fundamentals.
• Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.19 (26th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). Low conversion means reported profit is not translating into operating cash.
• Director-deal registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30: one sale registration (5,311,599 shares) and two purchase registrations (8,000,000 shares) with net registered volume +1.62% of shares outstanding; these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.

• Accruals quality = 100/100. This indicates low or well-behaved accruals by the Earnings Quality model (TATA = -0.0158 supports low total accrual magnitude).
• Receivables quality = 100/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.4% of total assets (64th percentile). Receivables appear modest relative to assets and score well on the receivables-quality metric.
• No accumulated undistributed losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and the company did not meet any statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended by Decree 245/2025. These are factual balance-sheet and statutory outcomes in the published statements.
• DSRI (Days’ sales receivables index) = 0.6039. DSRI < 1 can indicate receivables are not growing faster than sales, consistent with the strong receivables-quality score.

Ownership is concentrated among foreign institutional holders: Blooming Earth Pte. Ltd 13.7%, KWE Beteiligungen AG 10.5%, and access s.a. 10.1%, with smaller positions by an individual (Nguyễn Anh Đĩnh 4.9%) and Albizia Asean Opportunities Fund 4.8%. Director-deal registrations show insiders/related parties registered both purchases and a sale (net registered +1.62% of shares outstanding) — registrations are listed intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.

• Compare FY2025 operating cash flow to net profit line items in the consolidated cash-flow statement and the management discussion to reconcile the three-year cash conversion ratio (0.19) and identify non-cash or timing items.
• Inspect the note(s) on related-party transactions, loans receivable and prepayments in FY2025 to reconcile the 4.4% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle and to classify balances (prepayments to suppliers vs. long-term loans).
• Review the fixed-asset and depreciation notes (useful lives, changes in depreciation rates, revaluations) to explain DEPI = 0.6575 and any reduction in reported depreciation expense.
• Compare revenue recognition policies and the revenue note with the detailed sales schedule to investigate drivers of SG&A growth (SGAI = 1.4643), DSRI = 0.6039 and the revenue-quality score of 0/100.