Phân tích
STB.OL: Model value materially below market price as earnings and cash conversion diverge
The model intrinsic value is NOK 99.33 per share versus a current price of NOK 200.0, implying modelled downside of 50.3%.
Tổng quan doanh nghiệp
Storebrand ASA is classified as a bank in the supplied data. No detail is provided on its products, customer base, business segments or market position, so a more specific description of its operations cannot be substantiated here.
Reported revenue increased from NOK 35.3 bn in 2023 to NOK 55.7 bn in 2025, while net profit was NOK 5.0 bn in 2025 after NOK 5.5 bn in 2024. Total assets were NOK 988.2 bn in 2025. The supplied data do not include segment results or comparative information on Norwegian peers.
Các điểm chính
The model’s NOK 99.33 intrinsic value is well below the NOK 200.0 market price, a modelled gap of 50.3%. This is a model estimate rather than a forecast return, and there is no track record of the model in this market to validate its output. The valuation gap therefore signals material uncertainty, not a substantiated mispricing or investment opportunity.
Reported profitability is notable: ROE was 15.6% and EPS was NOK 11.697. The shares trade at 16.8317x P/E and 2.5402x book value per share. The supplied figures do not establish whether these returns are sustainable or how they compare with peers; dividend yield and several bank-specific operating ratios are unavailable.
Net profit declined from NOK 5.5 bn in 2024 to NOK 5.0 bn in 2025 even as revenue rose from NOK 47.7 bn to NOK 55.7 bn. Operating cash flow shifted from negative NOK 2.2 bn in 2024 to positive NOK 1.8 bn in 2025, following negative NOK 3.6 bn in 2023. This change is encouraging, but the three-year pattern warrants scrutiny of cash conversion and the drivers of earnings.
Diễn giải định giá
The sector model estimates value using a multivariate regression based on P/B, ROE, NIM and cost-to-income. It produces an intrinsic value per share of NOK 99.33; this is a model estimate, not a forecast.
- The model uses P/B; reported P/B is 2.5402x.
- The model uses ROE; reported ROE is 15.6%.
- NIM is not available in the supplied data.
- Cost-to-income is not available in the supplied data.
- The model value is NOK 99.33 per share against a current price of NOK 200.0.
The model’s implied downside of 50.3% is substantial, but its reliability and the uncertainty around that estimate cannot be established from the supplied information. No track record exists for this market, and two named model inputs, NIM and cost-to-income, are unavailable in the company data provided.
Quan điểm tích cực
- ROE was 15.6% and EPS was NOK 11.697, indicating reported profitability in the latest ratios.
- Revenue increased from NOK 35.3 bn in 2023 to NOK 55.7 bn in 2025.
- Operating cash flow was positive NOK 1.8 bn in 2025, versus negative NOK 2.2 bn in 2024 and negative NOK 3.6 bn in 2023.
- Total assets increased from NOK 896.9 bn in 2023 to NOK 988.2 bn in 2025.
Quan điểm tiêu cực
- The model estimates intrinsic value at NOK 99.33 per share versus a current price of NOK 200.0, an implied gap of -50.3%.
- Net profit declined from NOK 5.5 bn in 2024 to NOK 5.0 bn in 2025 while revenue increased from NOK 47.7 bn to NOK 55.7 bn.
- The shares trade at 2.5402x book value and 16.8317x earnings, while the model value is materially below the market price.
- Operating cash flow was negative in both 2023 and 2024, and the supplied data do not provide a three-year cash-conversion measure.
- NIM, cost-to-income and dividend yield are unavailable, limiting assessment of operating efficiency, banking margins and shareholder distributions.
Bối cảnh ngành
The supplied classification places Storebrand in the bank sector, but the data do not identify its business lines, funding mix or exposure by customer or product. It is therefore not possible to assess the relevance of particular Norwegian banking regulations, competitive dynamics or sector-specific risks to the company from this input alone.
No peer data are supplied. The reported ROE of 15.6%, P/E of 16.8317x and P/B of 2.5402x can be described, but not ranked against Norwegian banks. NIM, cost-to-income, loan-to-deposit, NPL proxy and three-year credit growth are all unavailable.
Yếu tố rủi ro
- Valuation-model uncertainty is high: the model value of NOK 99.33 per share is substantially below the current price of NOK 200.0, and the model has no track record in this market.
- Two inputs named by the valuation method, NIM and cost-to-income, are unavailable in the supplied company data, limiting scrutiny of the model’s company-specific drivers.
- Net profit fell from NOK 5.5 bn in 2024 to NOK 5.0 bn in 2025 despite higher revenue, from NOK 47.7 bn to NOK 55.7 bn.
- Operating cash flow was negative NOK 3.6 bn in 2023 and negative NOK 2.2 bn in 2024 before turning positive NOK 1.8 bn in 2025; the available data do not establish whether the improvement is sustainable.
- Debt/equity was 1.9183x; without further detail on the measure or the company’s funding structure, its implications cannot be assessed fully.
- Dividend yield, loan-to-deposit, NPL proxy and credit growth are unavailable, leaving gaps in assessment of income return, funding and credit risk.
Yếu tố có thể tác động
- Subsequent reported results could clarify why net profit declined from NOK 5.5 bn in 2024 to NOK 5.0 bn in 2025 while revenue rose.
- Future operating cash-flow disclosures could show whether the positive NOK 1.8 bn recorded in 2025 persists after negative cash flow in 2023 and 2024.
- Disclosure of NIM and cost-to-income would enable closer assessment of operating performance and of key inputs to the stated valuation method.
- Updated company results and market prices could change the model inputs and the comparison between the NOK 99.33 intrinsic value and NOK 200.0 current price.
Đánh giá dấu hiệu kế toán
Operating cash flow was negative NOK 3.6 bn in 2023 and negative NOK 2.2 bn in 2024, then positive NOK 1.8 bn in 2025, while net profit was positive in each of those years. This indicates an uneven cash-flow pattern; the supplied data do not include the three-year cash-conversion ratio needed to quantify conversion against earnings. Net profit declined in 2025 despite higher revenue.
No earnings-quality score or M-Score change is supplied, and the accounting-check fields are unavailable. Accordingly, no forensic flags can be confirmed or ruled out from these inputs.
Lịch sử định giá
This market has no track record of the model yet, so the model value is not validated here. The implied valuation gap should be treated as uncertain rather than as a forecast.
Nội dung do mô hình ngôn ngữ tạo ngày 2026-11-06 từ kết quả mô hình và báo cáo tài chính trên trang này; số liệu có thể phản ánh thời điểm đó. Đây là phân tích mô tả, không cấu thành khuyến nghị mua, bán hoặc nắm giữ.