Phân tích
Storebrand: Model value materially below market price as earnings and cash flow diverge
The model intrinsic value is NOK 99.33 per share versus a market price of NOK 202.6, implying a 51.0% downside gap.
Tổng quan doanh nghiệp
Storebrand ASA is identified in the supplied data as a Norwegian bank. The information provided does not describe its products, customer mix, operating segments or competitive position, so these cannot be assessed reliably here.
Reported revenue increased from NOK 35.3 bn in 2023 to NOK 55.7 bn in 2025, while total assets rose from NOK 896.9 bn to NOK 988.2 bn. Net profit was NOK 5.0 bn in 2025, below NOK 5.5 bn in 2024. Segment-level data are not available to explain these trends.
Các điểm chính
The model's NOK 99.33 intrinsic value is substantially below the NOK 202.6 market price. This is a model-derived valuation gap, not a forecast return or evidence of mispricing; the model has no track record in this market, which limits the weight that can be placed on its output.
Reported profitability is meaningful: latest ROE is 15.6%, with EPS of NOK 11.697. However, the latest P/E of 16.8317 and P/B of 2.5402 indicate that the share price is not low relative to the reported earnings and book value measures. The data do not include dividend yield or bank operating measures such as NIM, cost-to-income, loan-to-deposit or NPL proxy, constraining assessment of earnings durability and risk.
Revenue grew from NOK 47.7 bn in 2024 to NOK 55.7 bn in 2025, but net profit declined from NOK 5.5 bn to NOK 5.0 bn. Operating cash flow turned positive at NOK 1.8 bn in 2025 after negative flows in 2023 and 2024, but the supplied figures do not establish sustained cash conversion. The contrast between growing revenue and lower profit warrants scrutiny of cost and earnings drivers.
Diễn giải định giá
The sector model uses a P/B × ROE+NIM+CIR multivariate regression to estimate intrinsic value per share. It produces a model estimate rather than a forecast.
- Model intrinsic value of NOK 99.33 per share, compared with a market price of NOK 202.6.
- Latest ROE of 15.6%.
- Latest P/B of 2.5402 and P/E of 16.8317.
- NIM and cost-to-income inputs are not available in the supplied data.
The model estimate is 51.0% below the market price, a material difference that makes the valuation conclusion sensitive to the model's assumptions and inputs. This market has no track record of the model, and the gap should not be treated as a forecast return or a validated measure of mispricing.
Quan điểm tích cực
- Latest ROE is 15.6%, indicating a substantial reported return on equity.
- Revenue increased from NOK 35.3 bn in 2023 to NOK 55.7 bn in 2025.
- Total assets grew from NOK 896.9 bn in 2023 to NOK 988.2 bn in 2025.
- Operating cash flow improved from NOK -3.6 bn in 2023 to NOK 1.8 bn in 2025.
Quan điểm tiêu cực
- The model intrinsic value of NOK 99.33 is 51.0% below the market price of NOK 202.6.
- Net profit fell from NOK 5.5 bn in 2024 to NOK 5.0 bn in 2025 despite revenue rising from NOK 47.7 bn to NOK 55.7 bn.
- Operating cash flow was negative in both 2023 and 2024, at NOK -3.6 bn and NOK -2.2 bn respectively.
- Latest P/E is 16.8317 and P/B is 2.5402; the supplied data do not include dividend yield or key bank operating metrics to support a fuller assessment of valuation and earnings quality.
Bối cảnh ngành
The company is classified as a bank in the supplied data, but no detail is provided on its lending mix, funding profile, customer segments or market position. Accordingly, the note cannot make a grounded assessment of competitive positioning or compare Storebrand with Norwegian peers.
The company reports under IFRS. The supplied figures include assets, profit and operating cash flow, but not bank-specific measures such as NIM, cost-to-income, loan-to-deposit or an NPL proxy. That omission limits analysis of operating efficiency, credit quality and the drivers of returns; no company-specific regulatory exposure is established by the data.
Yếu tố rủi ro
- Valuation-model risk is material: the model value of NOK 99.33 per share is well below the market price of NOK 202.6, and the model has no track record in this market.
- Earnings momentum weakened in 2025: net profit declined from NOK 5.5 bn to NOK 5.0 bn while revenue increased from NOK 47.7 bn to NOK 55.7 bn.
- Cash conversion remains uncertain: operating cash flow was negative in 2023 and 2024 before reaching NOK 1.8 bn in 2025, and the three-year cash-conversion ratio is not supplied.
- Credit and operating risks cannot be evaluated adequately because NPL proxy, NIM, cost-to-income and loan-to-deposit data are unavailable.
- The latest P/B of 2.5402 and P/E of 16.8317 leave the share price exposed if reported returns or earnings weaken.
Yếu tố có thể tác động
- Further reporting could clarify whether the 2025 operating cash flow improvement to NOK 1.8 bn is sustained.
- Future profit disclosures could show whether net profit recovers from NOK 5.0 bn after declining from NOK 5.5 bn in 2024.
- Disclosure of NIM, cost-to-income, loan-to-deposit and credit-quality measures could materially improve assessment of the bank's operating and risk profile.
Đánh giá dấu hiệu kế toán
Operating cash flow improved from NOK -3.6 bn in 2023 and NOK -2.2 bn in 2024 to NOK 1.8 bn in 2025, while net profit remained positive in each of those years. The supplied three-year cash-conversion ratio is unavailable, so the durability of cash conversion cannot be established; the decline in 2025 net profit despite higher revenue also merits attention.
No earnings-quality score or M-Score year-on-year change is supplied. The available data therefore do not support a conclusion about forensic flags.
Lịch sử định giá
This market has no track record of the model yet, so its value estimate is not validated here. The model output should be treated as uncertain rather than as a forecast.
Nội dung do mô hình ngôn ngữ tạo ngày 2026-11-05 từ kết quả mô hình và báo cáo tài chính trên trang này; số liệu có thể phản ánh thời điểm đó. Đây là phân tích mô tả, không cấu thành khuyến nghị mua, bán hoặc nắm giữ.