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9416.T

Vision, Inc. ( Japan)

JapanTechnologyCommunicationsTSE
986
JPY · Close 2 Nov 2026

Intrinsic value vs last close

Model estimate
Close below intrinsic value
+36.4%Intrinsic value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (JPY)
986
Intrinsic value (JPY)
1,345

Intrinsic value = sector model's value (no adjustment)

Earnings-capitalised value

1,911+93.8%vs last close

Cost of equity 9.3% · price volatility 25.0%

Last year's earnings per share, capitalised at a cost of equity that rises with this share's own price swings, growing at the sector's long-run rate.

This is a different figure from the intrinsic value above. The intrinsic value is what the sector model says the business is worth. On Vietnamese stocks this figure has ranked future returns best in our track record; this market has no track record here yet.

Model reliability
High
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 2 Nov 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 2 Nov 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026The gap is recalculated when the close changes; the value updates weekly.

Valuation Breakdown

Communications→Technology
Classified as technology from the industry its market data reports: “Communications”.
ModelDCF + P/E Blend
Intrinsic = 60% x DCF Value + 40% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF lets growth fade more slowly than in any other sector, recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.

Technical details
Why this model

Tech firms combine high growth potential with current profitability that peers can benchmark. Pure DCF could overvalue if growth assumptions are too aggressive. The P/E blend acts as a market-calibrated anchor, while the PEG-based cap prevents paying excessive multiples.

How it works

DCF: 10-year FCF projection with growth capped at 20%, fading more slowly than in any other sector toward the sector's long-run growth rate. P/E: 5-year median P/E capped at dynamic ceiling (growth x 1.5, max 30). Blend: 60% DCF + 40% P/E.

Best for

Technology and IT companies where high growth potential must be balanced against the risk of speculative overvaluation.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
2.76%
+
Betasector default
0.696
x
ERP
4.20%
+
CRP
0.87%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
6.56%
Ke
6.56%
x
E/(D+E)
91.68%
+
Kd(1-t)
3.16%
x
D/(D+E)
8.32%
=
WACC
8.50%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend8.00%
Growth decays 5%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Max fair P/E→12x
4
Valuation

We compare the sector model's value with the last close. This market has no track record here yet, so the value is shown as the model gives it.

Last close (JPY)→986
Intrinsic value vs last close→+36.4%

Intrinsic value = sector model's value (no adjustment)

Intrinsic value (JPY)
1,345
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)8.50%
Growth rate8.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flowone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Values from the standalone DCF scenarios below. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth5.0%6.5%8.0%9.5%11.0%
6.5%2,4302,5772,8293,1203,441
7.5%1,6861,7821,9442,1312,336
8.5%1,3141,3841,5021,6371,785
9.5%1,0911,1461,2371,3411,455
10.5%9429871,0611,1441,235
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
Cash and cash equivalentsNet debt bridge
·13,561············
TOTAL ASSETS
·30,17325,26221,36717,95214,93211,35315,20213,55611,4849,9358,5283,9173,683
Short-term borrowingsDiscount rate (WACC) +1
·96000000000000
Long-term borrowingsDiscount rate (WACC) +1
·1,83760072398190246782256040413541
OWNER'S EQUITYDiscount rate (WACC)
·21,289············

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
76
Good
Accrual Quality
88
Cash Conversion
64

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Sharpe
−1.01
Negative
Composite
73
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
Price Risk
Momentum
−12.7%
Volatility
17.2%
Max Drawdown
−28.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.66P/E
P/B
2.27
P/S
1.24
ROE
23.1%
EPS
92
BVPS
433
D/E
0.09
EV/EBITDA
4.93
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
48.9M
Industry
Communications
Computed 02/11/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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