ALC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Âu Lạc

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

23.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Fairly Valued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

22.455

Current

23.400

Gap

-4.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

71.83%

Kd(1-t)

6.39%

D/(D+E)

28.17%

WACC

10.56%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

27.848

50%DCF Value

17.062

Blended Intrinsic

22.455

Value Decomposition

37%

63%

Explicit period (37%)Terminal value (63%)

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.95

Moderate

DSRI

0.095

GMI

0.403

AQI

1.980

SGI

2.701

DEPI

1.013

SGAI

0.680

TATA

-0.046

LVGI

1.215

The Beneish M-Score of -1.945 indicates that ALC is below the manipulation threshold, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the high SGI of 2.7008 and the relatively low DSRI of 0.0951 highlight potential concerns regarding growth sustainability and revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags

SGI of 2.7008 indicates aggressive growth which may not be sustainable.
GMI of 0.4031 suggests declining gross margins, which could impact profitability.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 90.7/100 indicates strong earnings quality.
High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 reflects effective cash management.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are predominantly institutional, holding 34.8% collectively, which may provide stability. However, the presence of significant individual shareholders could lead to potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor ALC's growth strategies closely and assess the sustainability of its revenue streams. Given the strong earnings quality, consider a cautious investment approach while remaining vigilant for any signs of financial distress.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

3.19

Safe Zone

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

4.65P/E

P/B0.81

P/S1.01

ROE18.8%

ROA12.5%

EPS5031.80

BVPS28722.49

Gross Margin33.1%

Net Margin21.6%

D/E0.39

Current Ratio3.52

Rev Growth170.1%

Profit Growth584.5%

EV/EBITDA1.90

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

56.5M

Charter Capital

564.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ALC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Polyscias Pte. Ltd

Inst

17.7%

10.0 trieu

Coney Pearl Pte. Ltd

Inst

17.1%

9.7 trieu

nguyen-thien-huong-jenny

Indiv

12.8%

7.2 trieu

Nguyễn Đức Hiếu Johnny

Indiv

9.8%

5.5 trieu

Trần Linh Vĩ

Indiv

4.5%

2.5 trieu

Nguyễn Anh Trinh

Indiv

2.7%

1.5 trieu

Mai Văn Tùng

Indiv

0.6%

332.672

Nguyễn Đình Thuỷ Tiên

Indiv

0.2%

108.791

Top connections

ACB2 links

Computed 12/04/2026