APF

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Nông sản Thực phẩm Quảng Ngãi

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

52.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

165.540

Current

52.000

Gap

+218.3%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

34.98%

Kd(1-t)

7.78%

D/(D+E)

65.02%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.32%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→404.56B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

404.56B

Growth Rate

3.32%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

165.540

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — APF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.62

Low Risk

DSRI

1.657

GMI

0.644

AQI

1.598

SGI

1.003

DEPI

0.889

SGAI

1.522

TATA

-0.154

LVGI

0.935

APF exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as reflected by its Beneish M-Score of -2.6223, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 54.6 suggests some strengths, the low scores in receivables and revenue raise red flags regarding revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.6223 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 54.6, particularly low eq_receivables score of 15.9/100, suggests potential issues with revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
Stable SGI of 1.0030 suggests that sales growth is in line with industry expectations.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is fragmented with no single shareholder holding a controlling stake, which may lead to governance challenges and potential conflicts of interest among minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and the implications of the low receivables score. Monitoring future earnings reports for consistency and transparency is advised.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.69

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.35

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-11.5%

Volatility

19.7%

Max Drawdown

-19.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

10.80P/E

P/B1.44

P/S0.26

ROE14.0%

ROA4.7%

EPS4830.24

BVPS36190.62

Gross Margin13.9%

Net Margin2.4%

D/E1.63

Current Ratio0.99

Rev Growth0.3%

Profit Growth3.5%

EV/EBITDA7.73

Div Yield1.9%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

32.7M

Charter Capital

327.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for APF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Đức Thắng

Indiv

6.9%

2.3 trieu

Vũ Lam Sơn

Indiv

5.7%

1.1 trieu

Võ Văn Danh

Indiv

5.7%

1.9 trieu

Lê Tuấn Toàn

Indiv

2.9%

955.089

Ngô Văn Tươi

Indiv

2.6%

384.227

Bùi Thị Như Hoa

Indiv

2.1%

567.219

Trần Ngọc Hải

Indiv

2.1%

674.738

Lê Ngọc Hinh

Indiv

1.7%

555.000

Trần Thanh Chương

Indiv

1.5%

163.558

Đặng Mỹ Ái Hoa

Indiv

1.4%

453.462

Nguyễn Chính

Indiv

1.3%

331.914

Trần Đức Thạch

Indiv

1.2%

386.761

Nguyễn Thị Thủy Tiên

Indiv

1.0%

330.572

Đồng Văn Lập

Indiv

0.9%

289.869

Đoàn Ngọc Hùng

Indiv

0.9%

276.970

Công Đoàn Cơ Sở CTCP Nông Sản Thực Phẩm Quảng Ngãi

Inst

0.8%

101.441

Huỳnh Văn Đồng

Indiv

0.6%

151.434

nguyen-thanh

Indiv

0.5%

174.246

Lê Ngô Tuấn An

Indiv

0.5%

171.880

Tôn Long Thành Nam

Indiv

0.5%

132.704

Nguyễn Văn Thái

Indiv

0.5%

154.312

Phạm Quốc Tàu

Indiv

0.4%

140.200

Đỗ Đình Ban

Indiv

0.4%

110.735

nguyen-thi-hong-hoa

Indiv

0.4%

113.444

Nguyễn Thanh Quang Lâm

Indiv

0.3%

86.922

Phan Gia Thái

Indiv

0.3%

75.947

Trần Như Thọ

Indiv

0.3%

75.776

Trương Văn Quang

Indiv

0.3%

71.912

Phạm Văn Lâm

Indiv

0.3%

81.000

Võ Thị Nhi

Indiv

0.2%

65.379

Nguyễn Duy Thiêm

Indiv

0.2%

78.557

Đinh Phi Hùng

Indiv

0.2%

63.210

Võ Đặng Thục Khang

Indiv

0.2%

67.348

nguyen-dinh-tuan

Indiv

0.2%

52.465

Võ Tấn Tinh

Indiv

0.2%

47.842

Lâm Đức Chính

Indiv

0.1%

32.573

Trần Thùy Dương

Indiv

0.1%

33.674

Trần Ánh Dương

Indiv

0.1%

33.000

Board & Management

Võ Văn Danh5.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Tuấn Toàn2.9%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Ngô Văn Tươi2.6%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Bùi Thị Như Hoa2.1%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Ngọc Hải2.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Ngọc Hinh1.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Đức Thạch1.2%

Kế toán trưởng

Đồng Văn Lập0.9%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Văn Lâm0.3%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lâm Đức Chính0.1%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

DHN9.6%VNL6.9%ITD6.9%BTN6.9%GND6.9%PHC6.9%DCG6.9%PTB6.9%TW36.9%NHV6.9%APC6.9%MKP6.9%

Computed 12/04/2026