Intrinsic value vs last close
Model estimate- Last close (AUD)
- 14.50
- Intrinsic value (AUD)
- 5.56
Intrinsic value = sector model's value (no adjustment)
Earnings-capitalised value
Cost of equity 18.5% · price volatility 58.3%
Last year's earnings per share, capitalised at a cost of equity that rises with this share's own price swings, growing at the sector's long-run rate.
This is a different figure from the intrinsic value above. The intrinsic value is what the sector model says the business is worth. On Vietnamese stocks this figure has ranked future returns best in our track record; this market has no track record here yet.
- Model reliability
- Medium
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We compare the sector model's value with the last close. This market has no track record here yet, so the value is shown as the model gives it.
Intrinsic value = sector model's value (no adjustment)
Earnings Quality
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 4.74
- P/S
- 8.61
- ROE
- 25.5%
- EPS
- 0.63
- BVPS
- 3.14
- D/E
- 0.01
- EV/EBITDA
- 12.70
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 457M
- Industry
- Non-Energy Minerals