BTN

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Bitco Bình Định

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

2.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

187

Current

2.700

Gap

-93.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

35.52%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

64.48%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

-5.581

50%DCF Value

187

Blended Intrinsic

187

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BTN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2019

-2.86

Low Risk

DSRI

0.696

GMI

2.245

AQI

0.009

SGI

0.670

DEPI

0.000

SGAI

1.211

TATA

0.018

LVGI

0.980

The Beneish M-Score of -2.8579 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 34.5/100, particularly low cash conversion and receivables metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 34.5/100 indicates weak earnings quality, particularly with eq_cash_conv at 0.0/100, suggesting potential issues in cash generation relative to earnings.
High GMI of 2.2449 suggests increasing gross margin pressure, which could indicate potential future profitability challenges.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.8579 is well below the manipulation threshold, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
DSRI of 0.6961 suggests that the company is managing its inventory efficiently relative to sales.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are individuals with significant stakes, which may lead to concentrated control and potential governance risks. However, the diverse ownership among individuals may mitigate some risks associated with a single controlling entity.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and receivables management, as the low cash conversion rate is a significant concern. Consider a cautious approach to investment until improvements in earnings quality metrics are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

-1.74

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.10

Positive

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

+25.9%

Volatility

81.7%

Max Drawdown

-23.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

-1.53P/E

P/B1.23

P/S0.89

ROE-57.3%

ROA-16.8%

EPS-2291.89

BVPS2852.08

Gross Margin-1.6%

Net Margin-58.5%

D/E3.47

Current Ratio0.16

Rev Growth-62.6%

Profit Growth-26.2%

EV/EBITDA-34.38

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

4.5M

Charter Capital

44.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BTN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Ngọc Linh

Indiv

17.2%

757.100

Mai Thế Dũng

Indiv

14.1%

619.100

Lê Huy Hoàng

Indiv

5.3%

238.428

Nguyễn Đức Thắng

Indiv

4.8%

210.000

Hoàng Xuân Nam

Indiv

4.1%

181.500

Trần Thị Kim Chi

Indiv

4.1%

178.967

Lê Thanh Kỳ

Indiv

3.5%

155.086

Nguyễn Thị Thơm

Indiv

1.9%

86.122

Đặng Trí Đức

Indiv

0.4%

20.000

Trần Mạnh Hùng

Indiv

0.2%

10.475

Ngô Quốc Vương

Indiv

0.2%

8.000

Board & Management

Trần Mạnh Hùng0.2%

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngô Quốc Vương0.2%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Phạm Văn Thanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Kim Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Hưng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thảo Phương

Kế toán trưởng

Lê Ngọc Sơn

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Đức Thanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Từ Văn Nghĩa

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

VCK17.2%DSE17.2%LM89.7%DHN9.6%SIP9.6%APF6.9%MGG5.3%CLH5.3%VNL5.0%ITD4.9%GND4.8%PHC4.8%

Computed 12/04/2026