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Utilities sector

CMW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Cà Mau
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
14.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
10.010
Current
14.000
Gap
-28.5%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.89%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS514
Payout ratio54.4%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
514
Base Growth
2.89%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
10.010
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CMW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

82
Good
Accrual Quality
74
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
54
Revenue Quality
81

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

-2.53
Low Risk
DSRI
0.985
GMI
0.841
AQI
0.940
SGI
1.115
DEPI
0.986
SGAI
0.906
TATA
-0.010
LVGI
0.987

CMW shows a Beneish M-Score of -2.5288, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly in revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial integrity.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 71.2/100 indicates potential issues, particularly with revenue recognition at 10.0/100, suggesting aggressive accounting practices.
  • The DSRI of 0.9849 is close to 1, indicating that the company may be recognizing revenue prematurely, which is a common red flag in financial manipulation.
Positive Signals
  • The high eq_accrual score of 95.9/100 and eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 suggest strong cash flow generation relative to accruals, indicating a solid operational performance.
  • The GMI of 0.8409 indicates a stable gross margin, which is a positive sign for the company's profitability.
Ownership Risk

With 71.5% ownership by the local government (Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Cà Mau), there is a risk of political influence affecting corporate governance and decision-making. The high concentration of ownership may limit minority shareholder protections.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor CMW's revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of its ownership structure. A thorough review of financial statements and potential governance risks is advisable before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
1.37
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.21
Positive
Composite
67
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+32.6%
Volatility
63.3%
Max Drawdown
-38.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.57P/E
P/B1.21
P/S1.42
ROE10.6%
ROA5.7%
EPS1209.57
BVPS11565.23
Gross Margin39.9%
Net Margin12.3%
D/E0.86
Current Ratio0.39
Rev Growth12.7%
Profit Growth32.3%
EV/EBITDA6.15
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
15.5M
Charter Capital
155.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CMW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Cà Mau
Indiv
71.5%
11.1 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Nước Thủ Dầu Một
Inst
24.4%
3.8 trieu
Lý Hoàng Trung
Indiv
0.7%
103.200
Board & Management
Trần Hoàng Khện
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Trịnh Kiên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Mai Thị Hiền
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
PHAN THỊ HÀ THANH
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Tấn Phong
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Phước Tài
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hồ Tấn Luật
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Nhan Quyên
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Văn Hải Lý
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Huỳnh Thiện Trị
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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