Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 74.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 83.336
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 56.1%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.2555th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 7.8%76th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
DMX’s Beneish M‑Score is -1.5188 (79th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +1.03, signalling that its accounting is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that the trajectory has moved toward greater aggressiveness. Earnings quality is mixed: an overall score of 76.5/100 with high accruals quality (94.5/100) but weaker cash conversion (69.2/100) and receivables quality (63.0/100). Solvency and operating fundamentals show distance from distress (Altman Z‑Score 4.26, Piotroski F‑Score 4/9).
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.5188 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using 8 accounting ratios); this is above the US -1.78 cutoff but that cutoff is US‑based — the company sits in the 79th percentile among Vietnamese peers, and the M‑Score increased by +1.03 year‑over‑year (the change indicates a material move in accounting profile).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.7840 (measures shifts in noncurrent and unusual assets; higher values can indicate capitalization or shifting of costs to assets), which is high relative to other Beneish components and may reflect increased non‑trade receivables or long‑dated prepayments.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 7.8% of total assets (measures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables; 76th percentile among Vietnamese non‑financials) — a relatively large share of assets are non‑trade receivables or prepayments.
- Cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.25 (55th percentile; measures the extent to which reported profit converts to cash). While above 1.0 (cash > profit) in absolute terms, the percentile shows it is middling versus peers, and the earnings‑quality subscore for cash conversion is only 69.2/100.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1350 (measures change in leverage; >1 indicates rising leverage) and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.1727 (measures sales growth; growth can press management to manage earnings).
- Accruals quality = 94.5/100 (measures the reliability of accruals; a high score indicates low abnormal accruals and cleaner earnings recognition).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0138 (measures the size of accruals relative to assets; a low positive number indicates modest accruals).
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.0000 (measures deterioration in gross margins; 1.0 indicates no deterioration year‑over‑year), and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.8350 (>0 but below 1 suggests reported depreciation expense increased relative to prior period assumptions), both limiting some manipulation signals in the M‑Score components.
- Altman Z‑Score = 4.26 (measures distance from bankruptcy; this is in the safe zone) and Piotroski F‑Score = 4/9 (measures nine fundamental health signals; a middle score indicating mixed but not uniformly weak fundamentals).
- No accumulated undistributed losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (amended) are not triggered in the published audited annual statements.
MWG (Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Thế Giới Di Động) holds 86.0% (control per VAS definitions), indicating highly concentrated control within a listed group. Director‑deal activity shows 3 purchase registrations (total 1,100,000 shares) and 0 sale registrations between 2025‑10‑30 and 2026‑10‑30, with net registered volume equal to +0.09% of shares outstanding; these are exchange registrations of intent, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 line items and notes for 'Loans and receivables' and 'Prepayments to suppliers' to quantify the components of the 7.8% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and the consolidated profit‑after‑tax in the cash flow statement and the notes to confirm the three‑year cash conversion ratio (1.25) and identify large timing items or noncash adjustments.
- Inspect the fixed‑asset and intangible‑asset schedules and the depreciation note to understand drivers of DEPI = 0.8350 and whether capitalization policies changed (supporting the high AQI = 2.7840).
- Review related‑party transaction disclosures and the schedules of receivables from related parties to see if material amounts are included in non‑trade receivables or long‑term receivables.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 1,268M
- Charter Capital
- 12,677B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bán lẻ
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bán lẻ
- Sub-industry
- Bán lẻ phức hợp
- Company Type
- CT