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Utilities sector

HIO

Utilities
Công ty Cổ Phần Helio Energy
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
7.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
6.607
Current
7.700
Gap
-14.2%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.77%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:EPS default
DPS329
Payout ratio50.0%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
329
Base Growth
3.77%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
6.607
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HIO

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

52
Fair
Accrual Quality
58
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
88
Margin Stability
15
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.19
Low Risk
DSRI
0.257
GMI
1.176
AQI
2.121
SGI
0.919
DEPI
0.929
SGAI
1.249
TATA
-0.108
LVGI
0.815

HIO exhibits several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly given its Beneish M-Score of -3.1863, which is significantly below the threshold for manipulation. While the earnings quality score of 52.2/100 indicates some strengths, the low revenue quality score raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.1863 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings quality margin score of 15.2/100 is significantly low, suggesting poor profitability relative to revenue.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates no reliability in revenue recognition, raising serious concerns about earnings sustainability.
Positive Signals
  • Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates that the company is effectively converting its earnings into cash.
  • Low DSRI of 0.2574 suggests that accounts receivable are well-managed relative to sales, reducing the risk of revenue inflation.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Công ty CP Helio Power holding 69.3% of shares, which may lead to governance issues and reduced accountability. This concentration could pose risks to minority shareholders if decisions favor the majority.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on HIO, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and governance structures. It may be prudent to monitor future earnings reports closely for signs of improvement in earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.70
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.47
Negative
Composite
34
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-17.5%
Volatility
63.6%
Max Drawdown
-45.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.43P/E
P/B0.59
P/S1.44
ROE5.3%
ROA2.9%
EPS657.41
BVPS12671.16
Gross Margin37.1%
Net Margin12.6%
D/E0.68
Current Ratio0.52
Rev Growth-8.1%
Profit Growth-34.5%
EV/EBITDA4.28
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
21.0M
Charter Capital
420.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HIO — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty CP Helio Power
Inst
69.3%
29.1 trieu
Phan Thành Đạt
Indiv
2.5%
525.000
Phan Thành Đạt
Indiv
2.5%
525.000
Nguyễn Thị Lan
Indiv
2.5%
515.000
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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