HMD

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Hóa chất Minh Đức

Hóa chấtCT

16.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

1.872

Current

16.500

Gap

-88.7%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→9.03B

Fair EV/EBITDA→6.4x

Years of data→4

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

9.03B

Fair EV/EBITDA

6.4x

Net Debt

44.47B

Equity Value

1.872

Years of data→4

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HMD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

1.74

High Risk

DSRI

1.198

GMI

1.117

AQI

13.457

SGI

0.903

DEPI

0.516

SGAI

0.771

TATA

-0.105

LVGI

2.419

HMD exhibits signs of potential earnings manipulation as indicated by a Beneish M-Score of 1.736, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Despite a relatively strong earnings quality score of 79.3, the high LVGI and low DEPI suggest potential concerns regarding revenue growth sustainability.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 1.736 indicates potential earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
High LVGI of 2.4191 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable.
Low DEPI of 0.5161 indicates declining gross margins, which could signal potential issues in profitability.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 79.3/100 indicates relatively strong earnings quality.
Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 shows that the company is effectively converting earnings into cash.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly concentrated among a few individuals, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The top five shareholders hold a combined 20.6%, indicating limited diversification.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HMD's financial disclosures for signs of earnings manipulation and assess the sustainability of its revenue growth. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach until clearer indicators of financial health emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.83

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.48

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+88.2%

Volatility

119.2%

Max Drawdown

-48.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

6.75P/E

P/B1.23

P/S0.73

ROE22.1%

ROA11.8%

EPS3398.03

BVPS15835.12

Gross Margin26.4%

Net Margin12.7%

D/E0.86

Current Ratio0.80

Rev Growth-9.1%

Profit Growth2.0%

EV/EBITDA6.37

Div Yield5.1%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

7.0M

Charter Capital

69.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hóa chất

Industry (ICB L3)

Hóa chất

Sub-industry

Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HMD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Phạm Văn Khẩn

Indiv

9.0%

626.805

Phạm Tiến Đức

Indiv

3.3%

227.085

Lại Văn Lườn

Indiv

2.5%

174.763

Phạm Văn Tố

Indiv

2.5%

174.251

Phạm Văn Quang

Indiv

2.3%

162.643

Phạm Thị Hạnh Phúc

Indiv

1.6%

113.125

Đinh Hữu Nam

Indiv

1.6%

112.000

Lê Văn Hiển

Indiv

1.6%

112.000

Đào Minh Ngọc

Indiv

1.1%

75.951

Phạm Thị Tuyết Lan

Indiv

0.7%

33.600

Bùi Văn Châu

Indiv

0.5%

38.052

Phạm Trọng Nghĩa

Indiv

0.4%

31.360

Bùi Thị Tân Hoà

Indiv

0.4%

41.213

Nguyễn Thị Mùi

Indiv

0.4%

30.256

Phạm Tuyết Trinh

Indiv

0.4%

25.900

Nguyễn Thị Dung

Indiv

0.4%

24.771

Nguyễn Văn Hùng

Indiv

0.4%

17.194

Nguyễn Thị Dẻo

Indiv

0.3%

23.002

Nguyễn Thị Tơ

Indiv

0.1%

8.062

Phạm Thị Thấm

Indiv

0.1%

7.200

nguyen-thi-huong

Indiv

0.1%

6.720

Top connections

HPO24.4%DHM20.1%THS10.8%CKV9.8%AMP8.6%HPH5.9%AFX5.7%HAP5.0%HVA5.0%TTZ4.7%VNY4.1%HSL3.6%

Computed 12/04/2026