HNX:TSB
Công ty Cổ phần Ắc quy Tia Sáng
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 15.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 16.797
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 4 Nov 2026Valid through 4 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.5%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.2756th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.6%26th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.2115, which is above the US-based -1.78 cutoff but sits at the 85th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and has risen year-over-year by +1.57 (an early accounting trajectory signal). Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 30.5/100) driven by very low cash- and revenue-quality scores (Cash conversion 0.0/100; Revenue quality 0.0/100), while balance-sheet distress indicators look mild (Altman Z-Score 4.58 — in the safe zone) and operational fundamentals are weak (Piotroski F-Score 2/9).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.2115 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); it is at the 85th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting relative to VN peers) and increased by +1.57 YoY (the change signals a move in accounting profile even though the absolute US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly calibrated to Vietnam).
- Very low cash conversion signal: Earnings Quality — Cash conversion = 0.0/100 (measures how reported profit converts into operating cash flow over time).
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (measures persistence and cash backing of reported revenues).
- Piotroski F-Score = 2/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency; a low score indicates weak fundamentals).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.2398 (one Beneish component that rises when a company shifts to higher non-current or discretionary assets; high AQI can indicate capitalising items that might obscure true performance).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.2151 (measures rising leverage; >1 indicates leverage increased year-over-year).
- DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.0948 (measures receivable growth relative to sales; >1 can indicate slower collections or revenue recognition timing changes).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1191 (measures accruals magnitude; a positive and material value suggests earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash).
- Altman Z-Score = 4.58 (measures distance to bankruptcy; value in the 'safe' zone indicates low short-term insolvency risk).
- Accumulated losses: none (undistributed earnings are not negative — a statutory/statement fact).
- Statutory loss tests: none met under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended by Decree 245/2025 (the published statements do not meet the exchange cancellation trigger in those clauses).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.6% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; at 0.6% this is low and is at the 26th percentile among VN non-financials), and three-year cash conversion ratio = 1.27 (operating cash flow / net profit over three years; at 1.27 and the 56th percentile it is not among the weakest in Vietnam).
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.9777 and SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 0.9253 (both <1 indicate no obvious aggressive slowing of depreciation or rising SG&A relative to sales).
The company is majority-controlled: DGC holds 51.0% (control, disclosed 2026-06-30), with the next largest individual holdings at 3.0%, 1.5%, 1.5% and 1.5%. This concentrated, listed-group control (DGC listed) means related-party, group transactions and VAS disclosures may materially affect the statements; director-deal registrations were not provided in the data set.
- Compare the movement in receivables and the DSRI (1.0948) to the notes: reconcile trade receivables, prepayments and long-term receivables line items in the FY2025 financial statements and the related-party disclosures.
- Match total operating cash flow and the accruals (TATA = 0.1191) in the cash flow statement and the notes: verify components of profit before tax versus cash from operations over the last three years to confirm the Cash conversion signal (Earnings Quality cash conversion = 0.0/100; three-year cash conversion = 1.27).
- Review the fixed-asset schedules and depreciation policy disclosures given DEPI = 0.9777 and AQI = 2.2398: compare additions, revaluations, useful lives and capitalised development or other non-current asset increases in FY2025.
- Check related-party transactions and group disclosures (DGC 51.0% owner): inspect the holders’ lists, related-party note and any intra-group balances, loans or guarantees disclosed in FY2025 to explain low receivables-outside-trade-cycle (0.6% of assets) and to identify concentration of transactions with the parent group.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.39
- P/S
- 0.56
- ROE
- 2.7%
- ROA
- 1.7%
- EPS
- 311
- BVPS
- 11.485
- Gross Margin
- 11.7%
- Net Margin
- 1.1%
- D/E
- 0.46
- Current Ratio
- 2.20
- Rev Growth
- +4.9%
- Profit Growth
- −59.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 17.08
- Div Yield
- 4.4%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 6.7M
- Charter Capital
- 67.5B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
- Sub-industry
- Hàng điện & điện tử
- Company Type
- CT