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HOSE:TCH

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Dịch vụ Tài chính Hoàng Huy

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
12.750
VND · Close 4 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+22.5%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
12.750
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.619

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
51.8%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+5.0percentage points
Real Estate12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Real Estate peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−2.6+12.9
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.278
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.71%
Ke
12.71%
x
E/(D+E)
97.34%
+
Kd(1-t)
1.95%
x
D/(D+E)
2.66%
=
WACC
12.42%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→12.750
Calibrated value vs last close→+22.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.619

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
10.4%17.19217.19217.19217.19217.192
11.4%17.19217.19217.19217.19217.192
12.4%17.19217.19217.19217.19217.192
13.4%16.60516.60516.60516.85417.192
14.4%16.60516.60516.60516.60516.605
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
55
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
32
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 0.11 · 94th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.11
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
5.349
GMI
1.310
AQI
0.790
SGI
0.352
DEPI
1.746
SGAI
1.469
TATA
−0.091
LVGI
2.493

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.2819th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
2.6%54th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows multiple signals consistent with aggressive revenue/receivables recognition: a Beneish M‑Score of 0.1135 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +2.11) driven mainly by a very high DSRI (5.3494) and elevated LVGI (2.4933). At the same time accruals and operating-cash metrics score well (accruals quality 100/100; cash conversion 100/100, though the Vietnam three‑year cash-conversion ratio is -0.28), while the Altman Z‑Score of 2.91 sits in the grey zone and the Piotroski F‑Score is weak at 3/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 0.1135 (94th percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +2.11) — the peer percentile and rising trajectory indicate relatively more aggressive accounting versus Vietnamese peers; note the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly calibrated to VN firms.
  • DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivable Index) = 5.3494 — this measures receivables growing faster than sales and is the main upward driver of the M‑Score.
  • Receivables-quality 0.0/100 and Revenue-quality 0.0/100 — these scores indicate weak evidence that reported revenue and receivables are supported by underlying quality metrics.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.6% of total assets (54th percentile) — a material but not extreme proportion of assets are in prepayments, loans receivable or other non-trade receivables, consistent with elevated DSRI.
  • Earnings-quality margin and revenue signals: Margin quality 31.6/100 and Revenue quality 0.0/100 — margins and revenue recognition raise concerns about sustainability of reported profit.
  • Cash-conversion (Vietnam 3‑year OCF / Net profit) = -0.28 (19th percentile) — low percentile indicates profits have not reliably converted to cash over three years.
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 3/9 — weak fundamental-score signal (profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating performance checklist).
  • Director‑deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): 10 sale registrations (8 traders; 10 without a volume) and 9 purchase registrations (5 traders; 9 without a volume) — these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals-quality 100.0/100 — accruals appear well aligned with cash flows on the metrics used.
  • Cash-conversion score 100.0/100 in the earnings-quality composite — at the company-reporting level some short‑term cash metrics appear strong even though the three‑year Vietnam check is weak.
  • TATA (Total Accruals) = -0.0911 — modest negative total accruals can indicate conservative accrual direction in the period measured.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive, and parent net loss in 0 years up to FY2025 — the published statements do not show statutory loss conditions.
  • Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), amended) — none met in the audited FY2025 statements.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: an individual, Đỗ Hữu Hạ, holds 30.2% (largest shareholder). The next largest are institutions at 5.8% and 3.2% and two other individuals at 4.9% and 3.5%, indicating significant insider control by the founding/major shareholder. Director‑deal registrations show multiple insiders and related persons registering both sales and purchases in the 12‑month window.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year‑end trade receivables and the note(s) for 'loans receivable', 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'other long‑term receivables' in the FY2025 annual report to reconcile the DSRI drivers.
  • Review the revenue-recognition note and the detailed sales/contract schedules for FY2024–FY2025 to see the composition of revenue growth versus accounts receivable growth.
  • Match operating cash flow reconciliation and the cash-flow statement (FY2023–FY2025) against reported net profit to verify the cash-conversion pattern that produced the Vietnam three‑year ratio of -0.28.
  • Read the related‑party transactions note for amounts, terms and balances with major shareholders and group entities given the 2.6% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.91
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−1.24
Negative
Composite
47
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.78×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.28×Turnover0.09×Leverage1.48=ROE2.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−38.8%
Volatility
38.8%
Max Drawdown
−48.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
37.37P/E
P/B
1.04
P/S
6.22
ROE
3.0%
ROA
1.7%
EPS
349
BVPS
12.534
Gross Margin
30.4%
Net Margin
21.9%
D/E
0.03
Current Ratio
2.97
Rev Growth
−64.8%
Profit Growth
−67.5%
EV/EBITDA
20.70
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
1,003M
Charter Capital
10,033B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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