HSA

Công ty Cổ phần HESTIA

VietnamConsumerHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpTư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhUPCOMCT

33.000

VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

−43.4%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 33.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 18.680

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

The closing price is too old for comparison.
Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.

Also note

A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 25 Feb 2024

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Close date unavailableRecalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

1.000

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.49%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

11.49%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default5.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→1.24M

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→33.000

Calibrated value vs last close→−43.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

18.680

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)11.49%

Growth rate5.00%growth method: default

Base cash flow1.2 triệuone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	2.0%	3.5%	5.0%	6.5%	8.0%
9.5%	18.680	18.680	18.680	18.680	18.680
10.5%	18.680	18.680	18.680	18.680	18.680
11.5%	18.680	18.680	18.680	18.680	18.680
12.5%	18.680	18.680	18.680	18.680	18.680
13.5%	18.680	18.680	18.680	18.680	18.680

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

HSA among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, HSA marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is HSA. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	148	234	37	91	131	214	210	242	216	51	15	11
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0.02	0.02	1	1	2	0.4	2	98	13	0.06	0.01	0.04
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0	0	0	0.00	28	50	48	121	194	51	15	9
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	147	233	34	87	100	163	159	23	9	0.08	0	2
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.05	0	0	0
Other current assets	·	0.3	0.3	2	3	0.01	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.06	0.01	0.05	0
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	0
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	55	55	251	197	165	70	61	0	0.07	0	0.04	0
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	55	55	251	197	165	70	61	0	0.07	0	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	55	55	251	197	165	70	61	0	0	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0	0	0.06	0	0	0	0.04	0
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0	0	0.06	0	0	0	0	0
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	203	289	287	288	295	284	272	242	216	51	15	11
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	0.08	0.2	0.01	1	10	29	21	15	87	33	10	7
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	0.08	0.2	0.01	1	10	29	21	15	87	33	10	7
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	0	0	7	27	19	14	9	32	10	7
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	203	289	287	286	286	256	251	227	129	17	5	4
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	203	289	287	286	286	256	251	227	129	17	5	4
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	46	16	8	8
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	−57	29	28	27	26	−4	−9	−32	15	1	−3	−4
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	203	289	287	288	295	284	272	242	216	51	15	11
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	87	100	159	159	19	0	0	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	79	46	16	8	8

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2018

90th–97th

M 0.64 · 94th pctile vs VN companies

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.398

GMI

2.500

AQI

0.000

SGI

6.667

DEPI

1.000

SGAI

0.374

TATA

−0.461

LVGI

0.154

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 27.1%94th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: 0.72×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 1
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 0.6363 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating materially more aggressive accounting metrics than most local peers; this score combines a very high SGI (6.6667) and GMI (2.5000) with a negative TATA (-0.4609) and other component signals. Earnings-quality measures are mixed: an overall score of 78.6/100 driven by perfect accruals and receivables quality (100/100 each) but a weak cash-conversion component (40/100). Solvency and fundamentals diverge: an Altman Z-Score of 9.50 places the company well inside the ‘safe’ bankruptcy-distance zone, while the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags

High Beneish M-Score: 0.6363, at the 94th percentile versus Vietnamese-listed peers (the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferable; ~28% of Vietnamese firms exceed that US cutoff). The percentile shows the company’s combined indicators are more aggressive than most local peers.
Sales Growth Index (SGI) = 6.6667 — measures year-over-year sales growth; this very high value indicates sales expanded rapidly and is a common area where accounting pressure can increase.
Gross Margin Index (GMI) = 2.5000 — measures deterioration in gross margins; a value above 1 suggests margins worsened year over year, which can motivate earnings management.
Total Accruals to Assets (TATA) = -0.4609 — measures accrual-based component of earnings; the negative large magnitude indicates material accrual movements relative to assets in the year.
DSRI = 0.3977 — Days' Sales in Receivables Index below 1 typically indicates receivables fell relative to sales; combined with very high SGI this interplay merits scrutiny of revenue recognition and credit terms.

Positive Signals

Accruals quality = 100.0/100 — the accrual components score indicates accruals appear clean by the applied metrics.
Receivables quality = 100.0/100 — measures that receivables behaviour and composition appear high quality under the assessed tests.
Altman Z-Score = 9.50 — a distance-to-distress measure placing the company in the safe zone (low bankruptcy risk by this metric).
Earnings-Quality overall = 78.6/100 — a solid composite score, reflecting particularly strong non-cash accounting and receivables measures despite weak cash conversion.

Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Lã Giang Trung holds 60.7% and Nguyễn Đình Chiểu 4.4%, indicating dominant control by a single individual. No director-deal registrations were supplied; if present they would be exchange-registered intentions rather than executed trades.

To check in the filings

Compare the year-over-year revenue growth and the SGI (6.6667) with the revenue note/schedule to verify the source of the large sales increase and any disclosures about one-off contracts or consolidation effects.
Reconcile the TATA (-0.4609) with the statement of cash flows and the notes on accrual movements: check the reconciliation of net income to cash from operations and the notes on provisions/other accruals.
Inspect the receivables and prepayments schedules: the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' line is 8.1% of total assets (81st percentile); verify the composition (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) in the related-party and receivables notes.
Confirm statutory loss-test outcomes in the audited financial statements: the group reports accumulated losses equal to 0.41x paid-in capital and one consecutive-year net loss at parent level up to FY2018; note that the company trades on UPCoM where the HOSE/HNX statutory delisting test does not apply.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1997.54

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.05

Positive

Composite

30 to 49

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✗Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin−2298.48×Turnover0.00×Leverage1.07=ROE−20.2%

Price Risk

Momentum

+6.1%

Volatility

0.0%

Max Drawdown

−14.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

—P/E

P/B: 1.28
P/S: —
ROE: −35.0%
ROA: −35.0%
EPS: −10.918
BVPS: 25.738
Gross Margin: 0.0%
Net Margin: 0.0%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 1893.55
EV/EBITDA: —
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 7.9M
Charter Capital: 78.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3): Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
Sub-industry: Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ KD
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Lã Giang Trung

Indiv

60.7%

4.8M

2025-06-30

Nguyễn Đình Chiểu

Indiv

4.4%

346,447

2025-12-31

Board & Management

Nguyễn Đình Chiểu4.4%

Member of Management Board

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

HSA among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Ownership network

HSA among Consumer