HTM

Tổng Công ty Thương mại Hà Nội – Công ty cổ phần

VietnamConsumerBán lẻUPCOMCT

9.800

VND · Close 3 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+1.4%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 9.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 9.936

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.

Also note

A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 3 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bán lẻ→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Bán lẻ” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.910

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.10%

E/(D+E)

77.66%

Kd(1-t)

7.78%

D/(D+E)

22.34%

WACC

10.36%

Growth Estimate

historical blend4.48%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→32.52B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.800

Calibrated value vs last close→+1.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

9.936

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.36%

Growth rate4.48%growth method: historical blend

Base cash flow32.5 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.5%	3.0%	4.5%	6.0%	7.5%
8.4%	9.936	9.936	9.936	9.936	9.936
9.4%	9.936	9.936	9.936	9.936	9.936
10.4%	9.936	9.936	9.936	9.936	9.936
11.4%	9.936	9.936	9.936	9.936	9.936
12.4%	9.508	9.936	9.936	9.936	9.936

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

HTM among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, HTM marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is HTM. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	963	1,043	1,340	1,011	1,073	1,156	1,479	1,919	2,000	2,196	2,543	2,115	2,967
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	28	55	36	32	55	18	112	225	412	513	516	261	294
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	1	0	0.4	0.4	0	151	185	283	102	197	97	172	395
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	868	929	1,220	880	945	905	1,074	1,185	1,279	1,241	1,603	1,310	1,482
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	337	330	345	353	353	366	400	480	592	472	584	452	423
Net Inventories	·	35	32	36	48	37	46	72	200	177	170	246	309	634
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	35	32	36	48	37	47	73	200	178	170	246	309	634
Other current assets	·	30	27	47	49	35	35	36	26	30	75	82	63	161
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0	0	2	4	32
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	2,083	2,078	1,935	1,940	1,953	1,907	1,911	2,264	2,227	2,346	2,490	1,968	1,948
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	4	7	9	10	10	11	16	17	16	310	293	298	6
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	59	60	59	7
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	617	636	554	578	577	565	576	797	828	664	900	705	1,145
Tangible fixed assets	·	571	591	508	532	531	518	529	717	748	625	829	658	688
Intagible fixed assets	·	46	46	46	46	47	47	47	80	80	39	71	47	34
Investment in properties	·	91	95	98	102	106	109	113	128	131	279	240	252	248
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	205	202	192	199	228	239	290	326	351	330	365	233	240
Investment in joint ventures	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	31	31	70	0	0
Investments in associate companies	·	133	131	127	134	163	173	217	268	267	241	256	168	181
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	91	89	66	66	66	66	73	58	52	57	49	65	58
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−18	−18	−1	−1	−1	0	0	0	0	0	−9	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	137	174	255	283	298	273	243	275	262	212	196	133	310
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	113	146	223	246	257	258	243	275	262	212	196	133	310
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	3,046	3,122	3,275	2,951	3,026	3,063	3,391	4,183	4,228	4,542	5,034	4,084	4,915
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	874	908	1,042	687	749	783	1,067	1,757	1,846	2,369	2,905	3,116	4,068
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	653	684	767	316	347	319	893	1,416	1,498	1,777	2,162	2,307	2,461
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	544	554	655	240	216	183	678	972	1,080	1,085	1,203	1,605	1,691
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	2	4	3	3	14	10	9	15	11	20	44	32	27
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	221	224	275	371	402	464	174	340	348	591	743	809	1,606
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	77	83	135	225	275	334	11	21	37	163	211	257	466
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	2,172	2,214	2,233	2,264	2,277	2,280	2,324	2,426	2,382	2,173	2,129	968	748
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	2,172	2,214	2,233	2,264	2,277	2,280	2,324	2,426	2,382	2,173	2,129	968	748
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	2,200	2,200	2,200	2,200	2,200	2,200	2,200	2,200	1,709	1,800	1,808	710	609
Other Reserves	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19	19	23	22	77
Difference upon Assets Revaluation	·	10	10	17	17	17	17	17	13	418	80	102	51	0
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	33	33	33	33	33	33	0.02	5	36	64	59	119	78
Other Reserves	·	0	0	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.05	0	0	0	0	0.03	0
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	−88	−50	−37	−6	6	11	89	−18	−15	1	−32	−23	−19
Minority Interest	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	3,046	3,122	3,275	2,951	3,026	3,063	3,391	4,183	4,228	4,542	5,034	4,084	4,915
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	106	107	171	171	243	181	136	145	183	169	169	156	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	2,200	2,200	2,200	2,200	2,200	2,200	2,200	2,200	1,709	1,800	1,808	710	609
Good will (Bn. VND)	·	24	28	33	37	42	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	17	21	20	20	20	19	17	223	207	200	169	89	0

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −1.94 · 67th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +1.11

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.526

GMI

1.917

AQI

1.042

SGI

0.613

DEPI

0.858

SGAI

0.800

TATA

−0.027

LVGI

0.974

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 14.6%87th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: 0.04×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 4Statutory test met
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.86

Grey Zone

Sharpe

−0.21

Negative

Composite

Below 30

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✗Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden1.13×Op. Margin−0.07×Turnover0.15×Leverage1.40=ROE−1.6%

Price Risk

Momentum

+15.0%

Volatility

85.6%

Max Drawdown

−36.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

—P/E

P/B: 1.00
P/S: 4.85
ROE: −1.5%
ROA: −1.1%
EPS: −151
BVPS: 9.797
Gross Margin: 26.8%
Net Margin: −8.1%
D/E: 0.29
Current Ratio: 1.48
Rev Growth: −38.7%
Profit Growth: −31.7%
EV/EBITDA: —
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 220M
Charter Capital: 2,200B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3): Bán lẻ
Sub-industry: Bán lẻ phức hợp
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH Motor N.a Việt Nam

Inst

65.0%

143M

2026-06-30

Công ty CP Thương Mại Dịch Vụ Hòa Hải

Inst

15.8%

34.8M

2025-06-30

Công Ty TNHH Thương Mại Ô Tô Thành Công

Inst

10.6%

23.2M

2026-04-24

Board & Management

Đỗ Tuệ Tâm

Deputy General Director

Nguyễn Tiến Vượng

Deputy General Director

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 3 by 2 traders; 23,169,200 shares · 1 without a stated volume
Purchase registrations: None

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Asean
Sale · Institution
11,584,600
2026-08-26
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Asean
Sale · Institution
11,584,600
2026-08-14
Công Ty TNHH Thương Mại Ô Tô Thành Công
Sale · Institution
—
2026-04-24

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

HTM among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

HTM among Consumer