MZG

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ Phần Miza

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Lâm nghiệp và GiấyCT

13.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

1.812

Current

13.600

Gap

-86.7%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→327.37B

Fair EV/EBITDA→9.6x

Years of data→3

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

327.37B

Fair EV/EBITDA

9.6x

Net Debt

2945.64B

Equity Value

1.812

Years of data→3

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MZG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.16

Moderate

DSRI

1.027

GMI

0.917

AQI

1.491

SGI

1.086

DEPI

0.921

SGAI

0.933

TATA

0.013

LVGI

0.999

MZG exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.1609, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly in cash conversion, which is notably low at 34.7/100.

Red Flags

The cash conversion score of 34.7/100 suggests potential issues with liquidity and the quality of earnings, indicating that earnings may not be translating into actual cash flow.
The SGI of 1.0858 indicates a higher growth rate than the industry average, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

The earnings quality score of 68.3/100, particularly strong in accruals (94.8/100) and margins (98.1/100), suggests that the company maintains a solid operational performance.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 31.0%. This concentration can lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of a few individuals over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor MZG's cash flow performance and consider the implications of concentrated ownership on governance. It may be prudent to wait for improved cash conversion metrics before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.48

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.36

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+24.7%

Volatility

75.7%

Max Drawdown

-55.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

10.93P/E

P/B0.87

P/S0.27

ROE8.6%

ROA2.5%

EPS1017.69

BVPS12755.61

Gross Margin8.3%

Net Margin2.5%

D/E2.51

Current Ratio1.29

Rev Growth8.5%

Profit Growth63.4%

EV/EBITDA9.64

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

116.5M

Charter Capital

1165.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Lâm nghiệp và Giấy

Sub-industry

Sản xuất giấy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MZG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Tuấn Minh

Indiv

31.0%

36.1 trieu

Hoàng Thị Thu Giang

Indiv

8.1%

9.5 trieu

Nguyễn Hoàng Tùng

Indiv

4.4%

5.1 trieu

Lê Văn Hiệp

Indiv

0.6%

743.674

Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Anh

Indiv

0.3%

291.500

Vũ Anh Trà

Indiv

0.1%

156.837

Hoàng Tự Lập

Indiv

0.1%

119.101

Top connections

ITA31.0%TCB31.0%VTS1.6%

Computed 12/04/2026