NASDAQ:CME
CME GROUP INC.
Intrinsic value vs last close
Model estimate- Last close (USD)
- 304.06
- Intrinsic value (USD)
- 1,127.01
Intrinsic value = sector model's value (no adjustment)
Earnings-capitalised value
Cost of equity 10.9% · price volatility 25.1%
Last year's earnings per share, capitalised at a cost of equity that rises with this share's own price swings, growing at the sector's long-run rate.
This is a different figure from the intrinsic value above. The intrinsic value is what the sector model says the business is worth. On Vietnamese stocks this figure has ranked future returns best in our track record; this market has no track record here yet.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Securities firms (brokerages) earn in step with market trading volumes, so a single year's multiple can sit at a peak or a trough. This model takes the firm's median price-to-book (P/B) over the last 5 years and averages it 50/50 with the median P/B of peer brokers, adjusted for how this firm's ROE compares with theirs.
Technical details
Brokerage earnings are highly cyclical, tied to market volumes. A single-year P/B snapshot at a market peak would overvalue the firm; at a trough, undervalue it. A multi-year median and a peer anchor steady the reference point.
Fair P/B = 50% × the firm's own 5-year median P/B + 50% × the peer median P/B × (firm ROE / peer median ROE, held within 0.7× to 1.5×). Peers are brokers the market prices on their earnings (positive ROE, P/B at most 3.0×); with fewer than 4 peers, the firm's own median is used alone. Fair P/B (at least 0.3×) is multiplied by current BVPS.
Brokerage and securities firms whose valuations are dominated by market sentiment and trading volume cycles.
We compare the sector model's value with the last close. This market has no track record here yet, so the value is shown as the model gives it.
Intrinsic value = sector model's value (no adjustment)
Earnings Quality
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/E
- 5.04
- ROE
- 14.2%
- EPS
- 11.18
- BVPS
- 79.88
- Net Margin
- 62.5%
- Rev Growth
- +6.4%
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 66.6M
- Industry
- Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services