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Utilities sector

SHP

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Miền Nam
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
34.350
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
48.343
Current
34.350
Gap
+40.7%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.70%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS2.500
Payout ratio87.3%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
2.500
Base Growth
2.70%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
48.343
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SHP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

71
Good
Accrual Quality
64
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
91
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.02
Low Risk
DSRI
0.866
GMI
0.993
AQI
0.955
SGI
1.032
DEPI
1.016
SGAI
1.169
TATA
-0.089
LVGI
0.937

The Beneish M-Score of -3.0212 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly with a revenue quality score of 0.0/100, suggesting potential issues with revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates severe issues with revenue recognition.
  • SGAI of 1.1685 suggests aggressive selling, which may indicate inventory management issues.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 71.1/100 indicates generally good earnings quality, particularly strong cash conversion at 100.0/100.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Điện Lực Miền Nam, holding 48.9%. This concentration can lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of concentrated ownership. A cautious approach is advised until further clarity on revenue quality is established.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
22.30
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.05
Positive
Composite
64
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+2.8%
Volatility
10.7%
Max Drawdown
-6.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.65P/E
P/B2.54
P/S5.37
ROE22.0%
ROA20.5%
EPS2947.33
BVPS13527.58
Gross Margin58.5%
Net Margin46.1%
D/E0.07
Current Ratio4.34
Rev Growth3.2%
Profit Growth0.8%
EV/EBITDA7.31
Div Yield2.9%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
101.2M
Charter Capital
1012.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SHP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Điện Lực Miền Nam
Inst
48.9%
49.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy Điện Đắk R'tíh
Inst
15.4%
15.6 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Cơ điện Lạnh
Inst
11.1%
11.2 trieu
Công ty TNHH Năng Lượng Ree
Inst
11.1%
11.2 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Đại Việt
Inst
1.0%
981.500
Nguyễn Văn Thịnh
Indiv
0.4%
442.800
Board & Management
Nguyễn Văn Thịnh0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Vĩnh Châu
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Võ Thái
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Thang Thanh Hà
Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thành Tú Anh
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Huỳnh Minh Hải
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thế Du
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Tấn Tài
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thu Huệ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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