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Công ty Cổ phần Mía đường Sơn La

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngSản xuất thực phẩmHNXCT
129.400
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
129.400
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
151.100

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
  • Historical growth has declined.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
57.7%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+5.0percentage points
Consumer12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−9.5+5.5
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.634
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
9.89%
Ke
9.89%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend12.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→140.65B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→129.400
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
151.100
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate12.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow140.6 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth9.0%10.5%12.0%13.5%15.0%
8.0%158.888158.888161.489164.053164.053
9.0%151.100151.100158.888158.888158.888
10.0%151.100151.100151.100151.100158.888
11.0%145.051151.100151.100151.100151.100
12.0%145.051145.051145.051151.100151.100
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,2531,154865544493351455422584250163159159·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·93105169764101861381138·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00540020000066·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·9227364573402372252802684491641137662·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·55442646302433862178953154·
Net Inventories
·1572981741732319215412911055376346·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1833001791762369715612911055376746·
Other current assets
·8115112419291181918537·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000.20.911·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·5425455735926206576756654632921008494·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·507521526568581633621577407241888091·
Tangible fixed assets
·506520525566580632620576406240877785·
Intagible fixed assets
·1111111110.91.013·
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·101212121212101003333·
Investments in associate companies
·101010101010101000000·
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000003333·
Other non-current assets
·23061653340.10.90.03·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·23061653340.10.90.03·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,7941,6991,4381,1361,1131,0081,1301,0871,046542263243254·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·49157219287473474642610627253657774·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·49157219265395301445374363116607774·
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0078105214138288258217255154·
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.9160.60.21257363766401290.9·
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0002378173197236263137400·
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0002378151197236263137400·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·1,7461,5431,219849640534487477420289198166180·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,7461,5431,219849640534487477420289198166180·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·98989898989898988282686868·
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·96964646464646464642321919·
Other Reserves
·781010797777666·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1,5411,3371,061691486378333323282155895973·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,7941,6991,4381,1361,1131,0081,1301,0871,046542263243254·
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·9999999999900·
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·98989898989898988282686868·

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
37
Weak
Accrual Quality
60
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
80
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.17 · 86th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −0.28
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.340
GMI
1.380
AQI
1.360
SGI
0.935
DEPI
1.779
SGAI
1.450
TATA
0.099
LVGI
0.293

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.5732nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
3.6%59th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.1714 (86th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year decrease of -0.28; this places SLS toward the more aggressive-accounting side among Vietnamese listed peers but below the US -1.78 manipulation cutoff (the percentile and trend are the more relevant signals in the Vietnamese context). Key drivers in the M-Score are an elevated DSRI (1.3403), DEPI (1.7790) and SGAI (1.4500); at the same time, the Altman Z-Score is 24.29 (well inside the safe zone) and the company has no accumulated losses or statutory loss triggers.

Red Flags
  • Beneish DSRI = 1.3403: days-sales-in-receivables index above 1.0 indicates receivables and revenue growth are diverging; high DSRI is consistent with the earnings-quality components showing Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100. These three measures point to potential revenue/receivables timing or recognition concerns.
  • Beneish DEPI = 1.7790: depreciation index well above 1.0 (DEPI>1) indicates depreciation expense has slowed relative to gross PPE — this can inflate reported profits in the short term and is a large contributor to the M-Score.
  • Beneish SGAI = 1.4500 and GMI = 1.3799: selling, general & administrative expenses rising relative to sales (SGAI>1) and a gross-margin deterioration signal (GMI>1) — together these imply margin pressure while operating overheads are growing, which can motivate earnings management.
  • Earnings-quality inputs: Earnings Quality Score 37.2/100 with Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100, and Cash conversion weak at 40.4/100 (operating cash conversion three-year ratio 0.57, 32nd percentile among VN non-financials). These numbers indicate profit is less well supported by cash and that receivable/revenue measures are low-quality.
  • TATA = 0.0992 and LVGI = 0.2933: total accruals (TATA) is positive (0.0992) indicating accruals contributed to earnings, and LVGI (asset growth adjustment) is elevated at 0.2933 — both feed into the M-Score and suggest recent earnings included accrual-driven components.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 24.29: measures distance to bankruptcy; this value is deep in the safe zone, indicating low short-term bankruptcy risk on the classic Z metric.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 4/9: a neutral fundamentals score (measures profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency changes), showing neither strong deterioration nor strong improvement in those accounting fundamentals.
  • No accumulated losses and 0 years of parent net loss up to FY2025: undistributed earnings are positive and the parent has not reported a net loss in the most recent year, reducing statutory accounting distress signals under Vietnamese tests.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 3.6% of total assets (59th percentile): this shows that non-trade receivables (prepayments, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) are present but not extreme relative to peers; the company is around the mid-range on this measure.
Ownership Risk

Shareholder concentration is notable: Trần Thị Thái holds 27.4%, Công ty TNHH Thái Liên 15.0%, and two other individuals hold 9.8% and 2.9% — together the top holders control a large block. There is no indication in the provided data of state ownership or of director-deal registrations (the provided shareholder list is dominated by individuals and one private company).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the three-year operating cash flow reconciliation (cash flow statement) to reported net profit to verify the reported cash conversion ratio of 0.57 and identify which accrual lines drive the difference.
  • Inspect the notes on trade and non-trade receivables (the receivables or related-party notes) to verify the composition behind “receivables outside the trade cycle” equal to 3.6% of total assets and to identify any large prepayments, loans to related parties, or long-term receivables.
  • Review the fixed-asset schedule and depreciation policy/note to confirm the drivers of DEPI = 1.7790 (changes in useful lives, additions/disposals, or revaluations) and whether depreciation expense changed materially year-over-year.
  • Examine the related-party transactions and remuneration/SG&A notes to reconcile the elevated SGAI = 1.4500 and to check whether selling/general & administrative expense growth is explained by one-off items, group service charges, or operating expansion plans.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
24.29
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−1.13
Negative
Composite
84
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.98×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.30×Turnover0.67×Leverage1.03=ROE20.6%
Price Risk
Momentum
−11.4%
Volatility
24.9%
Max Drawdown
−26.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
3.81P/E
P/B
0.79
P/S
1.13
ROE
21.9%
ROA
20.6%
EPS
36.744
BVPS
178.286
Gross Margin
29.2%
Net Margin
29.8%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
25.78
Rev Growth
−6.5%
Profit Growth
−31.6%
EV/EBITDA
3.61
Div Yield
10.7%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
9.8M
Charter Capital
97.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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