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Utilities sector

TBW

Utilities
Công ty cổ phần Nước sạch Thái Bình
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
12.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
26.880
Current
12.600
Gap
+113.3%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend7.56%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.170
Payout ratio38.1%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.170
Base Growth
7.56%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
26.880
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TBW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

77
Good
Accrual Quality
86
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
85
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
17

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.38
Moderate
DSRI
0.887
GMI
0.990
AQI
1.879
SGI
1.029
DEPI
0.937
SGAI
0.983
TATA
-0.036
LVGI
0.986

The Beneish M-Score of -2.3754 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 77.4 suggests potential concerns, particularly in revenue recognition, which could affect the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality score is relatively low at 77.4, with a concerning revenue recognition score of 16.6, indicating potential issues in how revenue is reported.
Positive Signals
  • The Beneish M-Score of -2.3754 is well below the manipulation threshold, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
  • High cash conversion score of 100.0 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 70% held by local government entities, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced accountability in corporate governance.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of concentrated ownership on governance. A deeper analysis into cash flow management and operational transparency is advisable before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.01
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.00
Negative
Composite
69
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-0.1%
Volatility
0.0%
Max Drawdown
-0.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
5.85P/E
P/B0.73
P/S0.71
ROE18.4%
ROA13.2%
EPS3090.22
BVPS17184.21
Gross Margin32.0%
Net Margin17.3%
D/E0.39
Current Ratio2.70
Rev Growth2.9%
Profit Growth1.4%
EV/EBITDA1.49
Div Yield9.5%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
9.8M
Charter Capital
98.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TBW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Hưng Yên
Indiv
70.0%
6.9 trieu
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Thái Bình
State
70.0%
6.9 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Cúc Phương
Inst
6.5%
640.900
Nguyễn Thiên Bắc
Indiv
1.1%
105.700
Đỗ Thị Hồng Vân
Indiv
0.8%
83.400
Trần Văn Đức
Indiv
0.8%
82.700
Phùng Thị Vân Quỳnh
Indiv
0.6%
63.500
Ngô Văn Tẩm
Indiv
0.5%
45.000
Đặng Thế Tường
Indiv
0.3%
33.800
Lương Hữu Hưng
Indiv
0.3%
31.600
Trần Thị Thủy
Indiv
0.3%
31.700
Hà Thị Hưởng
Indiv
0.2%
22.400
Trương Đăng Vịnh
Indiv
0.1%
10.000
Top connections
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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