Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 3.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 4.959
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 4 Nov 2026Valid through 30 Aug 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.8010th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 34.8%97th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.02×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting and cash-flow warning signals: a very high Beneish M-Score of 7.9031 (100th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +8.20) and an Altman Z-Score of 1.06 (distress zone). Operating cash conversion over three years is -1.80 (10th percentile), while receivables outside the trade cycle are large at 34.8% of total assets (96th percentile).
- Beneish M-Score = 7.9031 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight accounting ratios); this score is at the 100th Vietnam peer percentile (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and rose by +8.20 year-over-year.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 3.6319 (measures deterioration in gross margins year-over-year), SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 10.0000 (measures unusually high sales growth), DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 10.0000 (measures changes in depreciation policies) — extreme component values within the Beneish model.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1779 (measures accruals intensity), and AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.2570 (measures shift to non-current and potentially less repeatable assets) — both elevated.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.06 (measures financial distress / bankruptcy distance) — in the distress zone.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -1.80 (10th percentile among VN non-financials) — reported profit has not been converting into operating cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 34.8% of total assets (96th percentile) — a large portion of assets are prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables rather than trade receivables.
- Earnings Quality overall = 29.8/100, with Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — low scores on cash and revenue realization.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures the quality and persistence of receivables) — within the earnings-quality components this is the strongest element.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures nine accounting-based fundamentals such as profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency) — a neutral-to-moderate fundamentals score rather than a full deterioration.
- Accumulated losses = 0.02x paid-in capital and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — no balance-sheet accumulated deficit relative to capital and equity remains positive.
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 0.1493 (part of Beneish; here not elevated) and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.9287 (no sharp deterioration in leverage by this index).
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: the top three individual shareholders hold 19.8%, 13.9% and 13.7% respectively, and an institutional shareholder holds 11.8%; top-five holders together control a large share. No director-deal registrations were provided in the input (director-deal registrations are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare the line(s) for 'Receivables and other receivables' and the note(s) on 'Prepayments, loans to related parties and long-term receivables' in the FY2025 audited notes to reconcile the 34.8% of total assets figure.
- Reconcile operating cash flow (cash flow from operating activities) with reported net profit in the FY2023–FY2025 cash flow statement and the related notes to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio of -1.80.
- Inspect the depreciation policy note and fixed-asset schedules to explain the DEPI = 10.0000 component and check for changes in useful lives, residual values or capitalization policies between years.
- Review the revenue-recognition note, sales by contract/customer schedules (if any) and the trade receivables aging to validate why revenue quality = 0.0/100 and DSRI is low; also check for significant related-party sales or non-trade receivables disclosures.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.27
- P/S
- 3.93
- ROE
- 15.8%
- ROA
- 8.1%
- EPS
- 2.121
- BVPS
- 14.481
- Gross Margin
- −228.7%
- Net Margin
- 213.4%
- D/E
- 0.02
- Current Ratio
- 1.89
- Rev Growth
- +2019.6%
- Profit Growth
- +1699.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 18.1M
- Charter Capital
- 181B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT