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UPCOM:BTU

Công ty Cổ phần Công trình Đô thị Bến Tre

VietnamConsumerHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpTư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhUPCOMCT
13.000
VND · Close 4 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+6.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
13.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.885

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.000
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.49%
Ke
11.49%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
11.49%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend8.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→1.18B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→13.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+6.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.885
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.49%
Growth rate8.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow1.2 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth5.0%6.5%8.0%9.5%11.0%
9.5%13.88513.88513.88513.88514.542
10.5%13.88513.88513.88513.88513.885
11.5%13.88513.88513.88513.88513.885
12.5%13.88513.88513.88513.88513.885
13.5%13.88513.88513.88513.88513.885
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·10210178646164615947433833
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·22293135251523191410173
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·56001100.60.5000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·655936213240363428272025
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.8230.30.20.20.20.50.07000
Net Inventories
·1061183824460.65
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1061183824460.65
Other current assets
·0.20.50.20.60.40.30.40.50.60.30.30.4
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·131210111012111010111418
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000.060000000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000.060000000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·1112899109898811
Tangible fixed assets
·1112899109898811
Other non-current assets
·10.722111.00.81358
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·10.722111.00.81358
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·11511388767275716957545251
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·504931211823202514121113
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·504931211822192412121113
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·000.060.30.30.30.30.30000
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.910.90.90.0000.0020.6200.04
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0000.060.30.60.812000
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0000.060.30.60.812000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·656458555453514443424039
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·656458555353514443414038
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·363636363636363636363636
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·22181412111084320.92
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·798667844430
Budget sources and other funds
·0000.050.090.10.20.20.30.30.40.6
Budget sources and other funds
··00000.1000.3000
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·11511388767275716957545251
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·363636363636363636363636

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
51
Fair
Accrual Quality
54
Cash Conversion
1
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
61

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.51 · 79th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.82
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.952
GMI
1.036
AQI
1.631
SGI
1.163
DEPI
0.990
SGAI
0.853
TATA
0.122
LVGI
0.997

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.4530th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.7%30th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5121 (79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +0.82, signalling more aggressive accounting relative to most Vietnamese peers and a recent shift in the score. Earnings-quality components show a very weak cash-conversion metric (cash conversion 1.2/100; three-year operating cash flow / net profit = 0.45, 30th percentile) alongside a high accruals-related concern (AQI = 1.6307) and a modest discretionary accruals signal (TATA = 0.1215). Offsetting signals include very low non‑trade receivables (0.7% of total assets, 30th percentile) and a neutral Piotroski F-Score of 6/9; the Altman Z-Score of 2.93 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.5121 (79th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) and YoY change +0.82 — the absolute score is above the US -1.78 cutoff but that cutoff is US-calibrated; the peer percentile and the +0.82 rise indicate relatively more aggressive accounting behavior vs local peers and a recent move.
  • AQI (asset quality index) = 1.6307 — this component measures the change in non‑current assets and other items that can indicate capitalization or reclassification of expenses into assets; a value >1 suggests rising asset-based adjustments.
  • Cash conversion (Earnings-Quality score component) = 1.2/100 and three-year operating cash flow / net profit = 0.45 (30th percentile) — profit is not converting into cash at a level typical for Vietnamese peers.
  • TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.1215 — positive discretionary accruals measure that can indicate earnings managed through accruals.
  • Altman Z-Score = 2.93 (grey zone) — the distance-to-bankruptcy metric is neither clearly safe nor clearly distressed, indicating moderate financial stress or limited cushion.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.7% of total assets (30th percentile) and Receivables quality = 100.0/100 — very low non‑trade receivables and top receivables-quality score reduce concern about off-cycle related-party loans or large prepayments.
  • DSRI = 0.9515 and SGAI = 0.8529 — days-sales-receivable index under 1 and selling/administrative expense index below 1 suggest no recent abnormal growth in receivables relative to sales or in SG&A relative to sales.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 — indicates neutral-to-moderate fundamental health across profitability, leverage/liquidity and operational efficiency checks.
  • No accumulated losses and 0 years of parent net loss up to FY2025; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — the statutory statement-level indicators show retained earnings and equity are not eroded.
Ownership Risk

The largest shareholder is the Bến Tre Provincial People’s Committee (Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Bến Tre) with 60.0% (state ownership), giving very high ownership concentration and likely control. Three individual insiders hold material stakes (14.7%, 5.0%, 1.4% and 1.4%). Director-deal registrations from 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 2 sale registrations (1,059,400 shares) and 2 purchase registrations (1,059,400 shares) and net registered volume 0.00% of shares outstanding; these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note on property, plant and equipment and other non-current assets with the AQI components to see whether reclassifications, capitalized expenses or impairments explain AQI = 1.6307.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow and net profit in the cash flow statement and management discussion to explain the three-year operating cash flow / net profit = 0.45 and the Earnings-Quality cash-conversion score of 1.2/100.
  • Inspect the related-party transactions and loan/receivable schedules for FY2025 to confirm that receivables outside the trade cycle equal 0.7% of total assets and to identify any large prepayments or long-term receivables.
  • Review the statement of changes in equity and parent-company profit note to confirm there are no accumulated losses and to check components of owner’s equity excluding minority interest.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.93
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.19
Negative
Composite
64
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.78×Interest Burden1.04×Op. Margin0.14×Turnover1.08×Leverage1.77=ROE21.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
−0.5%
Volatility
44.4%
Max Drawdown
−20.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
3.33P/E
P/B
0.73
P/S
0.38
ROE
22.0%
ROA
12.4%
EPS
3.930
BVPS
18.055
Gross Margin
27.2%
Net Margin
11.4%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
2.05
EV/EBITDA
1.08
Div Yield
15.3%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
3.6M
Charter Capital
36.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
Sub-industry
Chất thải & Môi trường
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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