Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 2.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 3.516
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 4 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 12.9997th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.6%27th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.4029 (81st percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating more aggressive accounting measures relative to most domestic peers though the absolute US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly decisive; the year-over-year change is small (-0.03). Earnings-quality components show very weak cash- and receivables-related metrics (cash conversion 0.0/100; receivables quality 0.0/100), the Altman Z-Score is 0.67 (in the distress zone), and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -1.4029, Vietnam peer percentile 81st: the M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios; a high peer percentile means SCJ is more aggressive than ~81% of Vietnamese listed peers.
- DSRI = 2.0698: the Days’ Sales Receivable Index component of the M-Score is elevated (measures growth in receivables relative to sales), suggesting a rapid increase in receivables or slower collections versus last year.
- TATA = 0.0644 (Total Accruals to Total Assets): positive accruals of 6.44% of assets indicate earnings contain accrual-based (non-cash) elements rather than cash profit.
- Earnings Quality Score 26.4/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100: operating cash flow is not supporting reported profits and receivables-related quality is poor.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 12.99, 97th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials: over the past three years reported profits have largely not converted into cash relative to peers.
- Altman Z-Score 0.67 (distress zone): the Z-Score measures likelihood of bankruptcy/distress using profitability, leverage and liquidity components; 0.67 is within the traditional distress range.
- SGAI = 1.1461: selling, general & administrative expenses are growing faster than sales, which can pressure future margins and may reflect discretionary spending affecting reported profit.
- AQI = 0.8450 (Accruals Quality Index): below 1.0 implies accruals moved in the direction consistent with lower manipulation risk on that metric; accruals quality score component reported at 74.3/100.
- GMI = 1.0029 (Gross Margin Index ≈1): gross margins are broadly stable year-over-year (GMI around 1 measures deterioration or improvement in gross margin).
- DEPI = 0.9331 (Depreciation Index <1): depreciation policies have not shifted toward patterns that commonly inflate earnings (DEPI <1 indicates depreciation expense rose relative to prior year, not falling).
- LVGI = 1.0328 (Leverage Index ~1.03): leverage has increased modestly but not dramatically; owner’s equity (excluding minorities) is positive and there are no accumulated losses reported.
- No accumulated losses and zero years of parent net loss up to FY2025: retained earnings are not negative and statutory loss tests that trigger HOSE/HNX delisting are not applicable because the company trades on UPCoM.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Nguyễn Sỹ Tiệp holds 76.4% of shares, with two other individuals/institutions holding 8.3% and 7.7%. High insider control implies that related-party transactions, financing and strategic decisions are likely influenced by a dominant shareholder; no director-deal registrations were provided in the supplied data.
- Compare the increase in trade receivables and the DSRI driver by inspecting the notes to trade receivables and the revenue recognition note for FY2025 (look for changes in days outstanding, new customer terms, or large single-customer balances).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit in the cash flow statement and the management discussion (note) to explain the three-year cash conversion ratio of 12.99 (97th percentile).
- Review the related-party schedules and notes for loans, prepayments or long-term receivables (the ‘receivables outside the trade cycle’ line that equals 0.6% of total assets) to see counterparties, terms and any rollovers.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation policies and the disclosure supporting DEPI = 0.9331 to confirm no recent downward changes in useful lives or residual value assumptions that would inflate current-year profit.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.22
- P/S
- 0.14
- ROE
- 1.6%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- EPS
- 196
- BVPS
- 12.187
- Gross Margin
- 9.3%
- Net Margin
- 1.0%
- D/E
- 1.10
- Current Ratio
- 0.52
- Rev Growth
- −11.6%
- Profit Growth
- −3.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.04
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 57.8M
- Charter Capital
- 578B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT