VNT

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Giao nhận Vận tải Ngoại Thương

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

27.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

8.812

Current

27.100

Gap

-67.5%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

33.23%

Kd(1-t)

3.05%

D/(D+E)

66.77%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.05%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

25.608

50%DCF Value

-7.983

Blended Intrinsic

8.812

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VNT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.12

Moderate

DSRI

1.220

GMI

0.968

AQI

0.899

SGI

1.064

DEPI

0.983

SGAI

1.018

TATA

0.034

LVGI

0.981

VNT exhibits several concerning signs of potential financial manipulation, as indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -2.117, which is below the manipulation threshold. Additionally, the company's earnings quality score of 23.5/100 reveals significant weaknesses in cash conversion and revenue recognition, raising further red flags.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.117 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 23.5/100, particularly low cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue recognition (0.0/100) metrics, suggest poor earnings quality.

Positive Signals

The company has a relatively low DSRI of 1.2196, suggesting that inventory levels are not excessively high compared to sales, which may indicate operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated among a few institutional investors, with the top five shareholders holding over 82% of the company. This concentration could lead to governance risks if these entities prioritize their interests over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor VNT's financial disclosures and operational performance. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality metrics and a more favorable Beneish M-Score before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.95

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.87

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-36.7%

Volatility

125.5%

Max Drawdown

-63.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

25.54P/E

P/B1.93

P/S0.30

ROE7.9%

ROA2.6%

EPS1061.24

BVPS14043.09

Gross Margin4.8%

Net Margin1.2%

D/E1.98

Current Ratio1.13

Rev Growth6.4%

Profit Growth7675.9%

EV/EBITDA14.07

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

16.7M

Charter Capital

167.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ vận tải

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VNT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Vinafreight

Inst

24.9%

4.2 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Transimex

Inst

22.5%

3.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Vnt Holdings

Inst

16.7%

2.8 trieu

Lionas Fund Co., Ltd.

Inst

10.3%

1.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Giao nhận Kho vận Ngoại thương Việt Nam

Inst

7.6%

1.3 trieu

Nguyễn Ngọc Tú

Indiv

5.0%

824.847

Lê Thùy Linh

Indiv

3.9%

650.000

Công Ty CP Dịch Vụ Văn Hóa Việt

Inst

1.8%

163.900

Bùi Ngọc Loan

Indiv

1.5%

129.300

Nguyễn Xuân Giang

Indiv

1.5%

242.943

Dương Minh Châu

Indiv

0.6%

54.349

nguyen-bich-lan

Indiv

0.5%

92.568

Lương Ngọc Bảo

Indiv

0.4%

46.200

Lê Đại Thắng

Indiv

0.3%

50.239

Nguyễn Thị Bích Ngọc

Indiv

0.3%

23.000

Trần Công Thành

Indiv

0.3%

41.239

Đặng Thị Mai Hương

Indiv

0.2%

36.350

nguyen-thi-minh-hue

Indiv

0.2%

33.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Xuân Giang1.5%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Bích Lân0.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Đại Thắng0.3%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Công Thành0.3%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Thế Đức

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Thị Thu Hiền

Kế toán trưởng

Lê Duy Hiệp

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Kim Liên

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Ngô Trọng Bắc

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lý Việt An

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Tăng Anh Quốc

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Thị Bình Nguyên

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Quốc Thiên Kim

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Hoàng Như Uyên

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Bảo Trung

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

TOT2 links VNF3 links TJC57.7%CLX3 links VMT3 links VNL4 links DXG24.8%SPV3 links HAH22.5%BKG18.5%TMS10.3%DSH10.0%

Computed 12/04/2026