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ELC

Công ty Cổ phần Công nghệ - Viễn thông ELCOM

TechnologyCông nghệ Thông tinThiết bị và Phần cứngCT
11.500
VND · Close 16 Oct 2026

Valuation Verdict

ModelDCF + P/E Blend
ConfidenceLow
Overvalued
−17.6%Model value vs price
−50%Fair Value+100%+500%

DCF + P/E Blend values the company at 9.475 VND a share from its published filings. The gap above is how far the latest close sits from that estimate. It measures the model's assumptions against the price: a large gap usually means the model and the market disagree about growth or risk.

Current
11.500
Intrinsic Value
9.475

Backtest-calibrated reading

+4.6%Median 12-month return vs sector

In the 2015–2024 backtest, Technology stocks with a model gap of this size returned a median of +4.6% against their sector over the following 12 months. The calibration keeps the model's ranking and converts the size of the gap into what that rank has earned historically.

Calibrated range, Technology
−7.0%+6.9%

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Research Note

ELCOM (ELC): Modest upside but earnings-quality red flags constrain conviction

Intrinsic value VND 17,390 vs market VND 16,400 — implied upside 6.0% (model confidence: low).

Business Overview

Công ty Cổ phần Công nghệ - Viễn thông ELCOM (ELC) is listed on HOSE in the technology sector (ICB: Thiết bị và Phần cứng). The company operates technology and telecom equipment businesses with a multi-segment revenue base; reported revenue rose to VND 1,517.7 bn in 2025 from VND 800.1 bn in 2024. Total assets increased to VND 2,495.1 bn in 2025, reflecting balance-sheet expansion during 2023-25. Share count stands at 110,047,218 shares and foreign ownership room remains sizable at ~50.3m shares available.

Investment Thesis

ELC's valuation implies only limited upside: our blended model produces an intrinsic value of VND 17,390 per share (DCF VND 14,706; PE-based VND 9,278) versus the market price of VND 16,400, for a 6.0% premium. Key fundamental supports include an ROE of 10.6%, EBIT margin of 9.1% and net-profit margin of 8.5%, and revenue recovery to VND 1,517.7 bn in 2025.

However, the investment case is materially weakened by forensic and earnings-quality issues. The Beneish M-Score of -0.722 is above the typical manipulation threshold (-1.78) and sits in a high peer percentile, while the Earnings Quality score is low at 34.9/100 with a cash-conversion subscore of 0.0/100. These indicators suggest reported profits may not be well supported by cash flows, raising execution and accounting risk that is not captured in the headline multiples.

Valuation upside is modest and model confidence is low. The blended intrinsic value relies 60% on a DCF (WACC 10.0%, terminal growth 4.5%) and 40% on a PE anchor (max fair PE 8.0). Given the 6.0% implied upside and heightened forensic risk, the expected return does not adequately compensate for potential earnings-quality shocks and execution risk, particularly in a sector where visibility depends on contract recognition and working-capital management.

Valuation Commentary

Blend of a DCF (60%) and PE multiple (40%) to smooth model sensitivities and capture both cash-flow and market multiple perspectives.

  • DCF intrinsic value: VND 14,706 per share (60% weight). Key DCF inputs: WACC 10.0% and terminal growth 4.5%.
  • PE intrinsic value: VND 9,278 per share (40% weight) with a max fair PE of 8.0x.
  • Base FCF and a 5.0% growth-rate assumption underpin the DCF projection; terminal value accounts for ~59.9% of enterprise value.
  • Model calibration used isotonic mapping and produced a raw intrinsic value (pre-calibration) of VND 12,535 per share; final blended intrinsic after recalibration is VND 17,390.

The 6.0% implied upside indicates limited margin for error; model confidence is low due to forensic/sanity flags and input uncertainty. If earnings quality issues prove transitory and cash conversion improves, upside could re-rate; conversely, any evidence of aggressive recognition would likely compress multiples given the stock's modest premium over price.

Bull vs Bear

Bull Case
  • Revenue recovery: revenue increased to VND 1,517.7 bn in 2025 from VND 800.1 bn in 2024, supporting scale and operating leverage.
  • Healthy margins vs peers: EBIT margin of 9.1% and net margin of 8.5% provide cushion against cyclical pressure.
  • Balance-sheet strength: total assets rose to VND 2,495.1 bn and the company appears to be in a net-cash position per model inputs, reducing insolvency risk.
Bear Case
  • Forensic and earnings-quality red flags: Beneish M-Score of -0.722 (above the manipulation threshold) and an Earnings Quality score of 34.9/100, with cash-conversion = 0.0/100, suggest reported profits may not be sustainable.
  • Limited valuation buffer: blended intrinsic value implies only 6.0% upside to market price, leaving little room for execution miss or accounting shocks.
  • High revenue growth volatility: SGI ~1.8968 with weak cash conversion increases the risk that revenue growth is not backed by cash, pressuring future margins and free-cash-flow generation.

Sector Context

The technology hardware & equipment sub-sector is sensitive to product cycles, contract timing and working-capital swings; Vietnamese accounting under VAS allows classification and timing differences that can magnify headline revenue and profit volatility. Banks and investors pay close attention to receivables and inventory behavior; ELC's reported high receivables score is a plus, but its low cash conversion is a countervailing concern. Regulatory factors such as SBV credit quotas are less directly relevant to ELC than to capital-intensive sectors, but macro credit conditions and FX can affect capex and client demand. Compared with 35 listed peers, the sector median upside is ~6.0%, placing ELC close to the midpoint; top peer implied upsides are substantially higher but often with very low model confidence.

Risk Factors

  • Accounting/manipulation risk: Beneish M-Score (-0.722) exceeds the typical conservative threshold and sits in high peer percentile; this elevates the risk of restatements or profit adjustments.
  • Poor cash conversion: Earnings Quality score 34.9/100 and cash-conversion 0.0/100 suggest earnings sustainability is weak relative to reported profits.
  • Concentration and liquidity: top shareholders each hold ~4.9-5.1% — ownership is moderately concentrated across several small holders, which can limit activist oversight.
  • Valuation sensitivity: blended valuation relies on a DCF with a 10.0% WACC and terminal growth of 4.5%; a modest change in WACC or terminal assumptions materially changes intrinsic value.
  • Revenue recognition and SG&A timing: SGI of ~1.8968 and rapid revenue swings from 2024 to 2025 increase the risk that margin and profit trends reverse if contracts are lumpy or recognition is aggressive.
  • Market liquidity: average 2-week volume of ~401,297 shares means larger institutional trades can move price and create execution risk.

Catalysts

  • Quarterly release confirming improved cash conversion or operating cash-flow recovery.
  • Evidence of sustainable margin improvement or long-term contracts that de-risk revenue recognition.
  • Independent audit commentary or enhanced disclosure that reduces forensic/earnings-quality concerns.
  • Sector re-rating driven by stronger hardware demand or client wins that increase visibility on 2027 revenue.

Forensic Assessment

Forensic indicators raise material concerns. The Beneish M-Score at -0.722 is above the commonly used -1.78 threshold, indicating a non-trivial likelihood of earnings manipulation and a notable year-over-year increase; input summary flags this as a primary forensic worry. Earnings Quality is low (34.9/100) with an especially weak cash-conversion component (0.0/100), despite a high receivables score. Positive offsets include an Altman Z-Score of 3.14 (safe zone) and neutral Piotroski signals, but overall the reliability of reported earnings is questionable until cash flows and accounting disclosures improve.

Track Record

Model track record spans 12 years with a hit rate of 54.5%, indicating modest historical predictive power (slightly better than coin flip). The model's historical average upside is large (avg upside ~66.5%), but past upside alone does not mitigate current forensic flags. Given the model's mediocre hit-rate and current low confidence calibration, historical performance should be treated cautiously when forming conviction on ELC today.

Written by a language model on 2026-08-10 from this page’s own model outputs and financial statements, and may quote figures from that date. Descriptive analysis, not investment advice — no buy, sell or hold recommendation is given or implied.

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Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

75th–90th
M −0.72 · 89th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.18
Conservative vs VN peersAggressive
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.793
GMI
1.714
AQI
0.779
SGI
1.897
DEPI
0.840
SGAI
0.508
TATA
0.174
LVGI
1.058

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.2219th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
12.8%85th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

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Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.61P/E
P/B
1.00
P/S
0.89
ROE
10.6%
ROA
5.7%
EPS
1.160
BVPS
12.276
Gross Margin
17.8%
Net Margin
8.5%
D/E
0.26
Current Ratio
2.45
Rev Growth
+89.7%
Profit Growth
+33.7%
EV/EBITDA
8.27
Div Yield
0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
118M
Charter Capital
1,177B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Công nghệ Thông tin
Industry (ICB L3)
Thiết bị và Phần cứng
Sub-industry
Thiết bị viễn thông
Company Type
CT

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Computed 16/10/2026
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