PMT

Công ty Cổ phần Viễn thông Telvina Việt Nam

TechnologyCông nghệ Thông tinThiết bị và Phần cứngCT

8.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

ModelDCF + P/E Blend

ConfidenceLow

Overvalued

−52.9%Model value vs price

−50%Fair Value+100%+500%

DCF + P/E Blend values the company at 4.003 VND a share from its published filings. The gap above is how far the latest close sits from that estimate. It measures the model's assumptions against the price: a large gap usually means the model and the market disagree about growth or risk.

Current: 8.500
Intrinsic Value: 4.003

Backtest-calibrated reading

−2.9%Median 12-month return vs sector

In the 2015–2024 backtest, Technology stocks with a model gap of this size returned a median of −2.9% against their sector over the following 12 months. The calibration keeps the model's ranking and converts the size of the gap into what that rank has earned historically.

Calibrated range, Technology

−7.0%+6.9%

Published filingsValued 16 Oct 2026

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Công nghệ Thông tin→Technology

Classified as technology because ICB sector “Công nghệ Thông tin” maps to the technology group.

ModelDCF + P/E Blend

Intrinsic = 60% x DCF Value + 40% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF uses the slowest growth decay (0.05) recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.

Technical details

Why this model

Tech firms combine high growth potential with current profitability that peers can benchmark. Pure DCF could overvalue if growth assumptions are too aggressive. The P/E blend acts as a market-calibrated anchor, while the PEG-based cap prevents paying excessive multiples.

How it works

DCF: 10-year FCF projection with aggressive growth cap (20%) and slow decay (0.05) toward 3% terminal. P/E: 5-year median P/E capped at dynamic ceiling (growth x 1.5, max 30). Blend: 60% DCF + 40% P/E.

Best for

Technology and IT companies where high growth potential must be balanced against the risk of speculative overvaluation.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.80%

E/(D+E)

99.87%

Kd(1-t)

5.40%

D/(D+E)

0.13%

WACC

12.79%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default8.00%

Growth decays 5%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Max fair P/E→12x

Valuation

60%DCF Value

2.777

40%P/E Value

5.842

Blended Intrinsic

4.003

Value Decomposition

52%

48%

Explicit period (52%)Terminal value (48%)

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)12.79%

Growth rate8.00%growth method: default

Base cash flowone off strip ratio: 0

Net debt bridge−6.6 tỷ

P/E cross-check5.842max fair pe: 12

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DCF Sensitivity

Intrinsic value at different WACC and growth rate assumptions

WACC \ Growth	5.0%	6.5%	8.0%	9.5%	11.0%
10.8%	2.987	3.087	3.249	3.433	3.634
11.8%	2.760	2.845	2.980	3.133	3.301
12.8%	2.588	2.661	2.777	2.907	3.049
13.8%	2.453	2.517	2.617	2.729	2.852
14.8%	2.344	2.401	2.489	2.587	2.694

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

See how the value moves with WACC and growth

Investor opens the parts that take the most work to produce: the year-by-year track record, the forensic analysis and the ownership network.

See Investor

Research Note

Telvina (PMT): modest DCF/PE blend valuation; upside limited and liquidity/earnings-quality concerns

Intrinsic value VND 6,999 vs market VND 6,600 — implied upside 6.0% (confidence: low).

Business Overview

Công ty Cổ phần Viễn thông Telvina Việt Nam (PMT) operates in telecommunications equipment and hardware (ICB: Thiết bị và Phần cứng) and is listed on UPCOM. The company generated revenue of VND 191.0 bn in 2025 (up from VND 176.1 bn in 2024) and reported net profit of VND 2.4 bn in 2025 after a loss of VND 3.5 bn in 2024, reflecting a small, volatile earnings base. Total assets stood at VND 111.2 bn in 2025.

Investment Thesis

PMT's blended intrinsic value (DCF/PE) is VND 6,999 per share, driven by a 60/40 DCF/PE mix; the DCF component values the business at VND 2,740.4 per share while the PE leg contributes VND 5,841.5 per share. The implied upside of 6.0% to the current price is modest relative to execution and liquidity risks, and our confidence in the valuation is low.

Operationally, margins are thin: gross margin 14.11% and EBIT margin 1.25% in the latest reported period, with net profit margin 1.26% and ROE of 3.13% — evidence of low return on capital and limited earnings scalability. The company trades at P/E 14.2x and P/B 0.42x, implying a low market valuation relative to book value but with a small earnings base (EPS VND 486.8) and no dividend yield.

Key structural negatives include concentrated ownership (Tập Đoàn Bưu Chính Viễn Thông Việt Nam 49.8%), zero foreign_room, low liquidity (avg volume 757 shares over 2 weeks and UPCOM listing), and an earnings-quality score of 30.1 with model sanity flags "illiquid" and "mediocre_earnings_quality." These weaken our conviction despite a blended valuation that is slightly above the market price.

Valuation Commentary

Blend of a 60% DCF and 40% PE relative-valuation to arrive at an intrinsic value per share.

DCF intrinsic component VND 2,740.4 per share using WACC 11.12% (wacc input), terminal growth 4.5% and TV contribution 55.68% of value
PE component VND 5,841.5 per share with max fair PE capped at 12.0x
Base free cash flow (FCF) VND 488,262,268 and assumed growth rate 8.0% with decay 5.0%
Net cash position (net_debt = -VND 4,555,867,342) improving enterprise value
Model calibration (isotonic) produced raw_intrinsic_value VND 3,980.9 before blending and final calibration

The blended intrinsic value implies only 6.0% upside to today’s price, which is insufficient to compensate for execution, liquidity and earnings-quality risks; confidence in the model is low. Given the low liquidity and concentrated share register, actual realizable upside is likely lower and sensitivity to WACC/growth is material.

Bull vs Bear

Bull Case

Blended valuation yields intrinsic value VND 6,999 per share — 6.0% above current price VND 6,600, leaving limited upside if operations stabilize.
Company carries net cash (net_debt = -VND 4,555,867,342) which reduces enterprise risk and supports balance-sheet flexibility.
Revenue has been stable and growing slightly to VND 191.0 bn in 2025 from VND 176.1 bn in 2024, suggesting resilient topline in a niche equipment segment.

Bear Case

Earnings are small and volatile: net profit swung from VND -3.5 bn in 2024 to VND 2.4 bn in 2025, and EPS is only VND 486.8 per share, raising execution risk.
Liquidity and free-float constraints: average two-week volume 757 shares and UPCOM listing flagged as illiquid; foreign_room = 0.0 limits demand from foreign investors.
Earnings-quality score 30.1 and model sanity flag "mediocre_earnings_quality" point to weak earnings reliability and higher forensic risk.
Top shareholder (VNPT) owns 49.8% — high ownership concentration can limit minority shareholder protections and strategic flexibility.

Sector Context

PMT sits in the Vietnamese telecommunications-equipment and hardware segment where peers show varied valuations; sector median modeled upside is c. 6.0%. The market for listed hardware names is small and often trades on UPCOM with limited liquidity, increasing bid-ask and execution risk. Regulatory context matters: accounting differences under VAS (e.g., treatment of reserves, related-party transactions) can make cross-border comparability difficult; VAMC bonds and SBV credit quotas are more relevant to banks but highlight how State-related entities (VNPT as a near-50% holder) can influence capital allocation and payout policies. For real-estate-backed peers, land-use-rights are critical — less relevant for PMT but worth noting when comparing multiples across the ICB group.

Risk Factors

Low earnings base and volatility: net profit swung from VND -3.5 bn (2024) to VND 2.4 bn (2025), making forward forecasts highly sensitive to a small absolute change in profits.
Illiquidity: avg_volume_2w = 757 shares and UPCOM listing mean large orders can materially move the price and hamper exit.
Concentrated ownership: VNPT holds 49.8%, reducing free float and potential corporate-governance flexibility for minority holders.
No foreign room: foreign_room = 0.0 restricts demand from institutional foreign investors and may cap rerating potential.
Weak earnings quality: earnings_quality = 30.1 and sanity flags raise concerns on recurring cash conversion and one-off items.
Model and input risk: valuation confidence is low and DCF component dominates (60%), so changes in WACC (11.12%) or growth (8.0%) materially alter intrinsic value.
Thin margins: net profit margin 1.26% and ROE 3.13% suggest limited capacity to generate high returns on equity vs peers.

Catalysts

Improved operational profitability (sustained net profit growth above 2025 level VND 2.4 bn) which could lift P/E re-rating.
Any liquidity event or secondary listing that increases free float and addresses foreign_room = 0.0.
Contract wins or expansion into higher-margin services that increase gross margin (currently 14.11%).
A change in VNPT’s strategic shareholding that increases minority free float or triggers asset unlock.

Forensic Assessment

No Beneish M-Score is available (mscore: null). However, the report flags mediocre earnings quality (score 30.1) and the model's sanity flags include "illiquid" and "mediocre_earnings_quality." With those signals and volatile small net-profit figures (VND -3.5 bn in 2024 to VND 2.4 bn in 2025), the primary forensic concern is earnings reliability and cash-conversion rather than explicit manipulation evidence. Close review of one-off items, related-party transactions with the major shareholder (VNPT) and cash-flow statements is warranted.

Track Record

The model has a historical hit rate of 0.7273 (12 years), i.e., it correctly called directionality in ~72.7% of prior years. Average historical upside on past calls is high (avg_upside_pct = 110.4%), but past performance is skewed by episodic large outcomes and does not guarantee repeatability. Given the current low-confidence calibration and illiquidity, historical track record provides limited comfort.

Written by a language model on 2026-08-10 from this page’s own model outputs and financial statements, and may quote figures from that date. Descriptive analysis, not investment advice — no buy, sell or hold recommendation is given or implied.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calc

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	101	89	97	115	105	98	135	166	141	120	96	72	51
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	5	10	21	12	25	11	13	15	18	5	14	4	6
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	2	2	5	2	6	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.3	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	59	47	41	43	36	61	66	74	76	59	39	39	20
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	0.1	0.1	0.01	0	0.1	0.04	0.00	0.5	1	0.01	1.0	0.02	0.01
Net Inventories	·	32	28	29	56	38	25	55	74	46	55	41	26	25
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	32	28	30	57	40	27	56	75	47	56	43	28	27
Other current assets	·	2	2	0.5	1	0.7	0.3	0.8	2	1.0	1.0	2	3	0.6
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.3
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	10	9	7	8	10	13	19	23	27	32	38	42	46
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	0.02	0	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	0.02	0	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	9	8	7	8	9	13	18	23	27	32	38	42	45
Tangible fixed assets	·	5	3	2	3	4	8	13	18	21	26	32	36	39
Intagible fixed assets	·	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6
Other non-current assets	·	0.8	1	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6	1	0.6	0.04	0.09	0.01	0.2	0.5
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	0.8	1	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6	1	0.6	0.04	0.09	0.01	0.2	0.5
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	111	98	104	123	115	111	154	189	168	152	134	114	97
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	33	22	25	43	33	29	73	110	90	77	60	42	12
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	29	22	21	35	25	24	73	109	89	77	60	42	12
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	40	60	55	33	34	10	0.4
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0.7	0.9	0.2	0.3	0.3	1	0.4	1	0.3	0.1	0.5	0.02	0.2
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	4	0.5	4	8	8	5	0	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	78	76	79	80	82	82	81	79	78	75	74	72	85
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	78	76	79	80	82	82	81	79	78	75	74	72	85
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
Other Reserves	·	2	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	48	48	45	45
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	2	−4	0.5	1	3	3	2	0.2	−0.9	−52	−53	−55	−42
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	111	98	104	123	115	111	154	189	168	152	134	114	97
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50

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See the 2015-present track record

Investor opens the parts that take the most work to produce: the year-by-year track record, the forensic analysis and the ownership network.

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Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.55 · 36th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −1.18

Conservative vs VN peersAggressive

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.156

GMI

0.454

AQI

0.582

SGI

1.085

DEPI

1.494

SGAI

1.481

TATA

0.052

LVGI

1.157

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.1%9th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.32

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.06

Positive

Composite

Poor

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden0.98×Op. Margin0.01×Turnover1.72×Leverage1.43=ROE3.1%

Price Risk

Momentum

−21.2%

Volatility

59.7%

Max Drawdown

−33.3%

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Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

17.46P/E

P/B: 0.54
P/S: 0.22
ROE: 3.1%
ROA: 2.3%
EPS: 487
BVPS: 15.773
Gross Margin: 14.1%
Net Margin: 1.3%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 3.50
EV/EBITDA: 10.85
Div Yield: 5.2%

Company Overview

Issued Shares: 4.9M
Charter Capital: 49.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Công nghệ Thông tin
Industry (ICB L3): Thiết bị và Phần cứng
Sub-industry: Thiết bị viễn thông
Company Type: CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PMT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập Đoàn Bưu Chính Viễn Thông Việt Nam

Inst

49.8%

2.5 triệu

2026-08-13

Nguyễn Thúy Hà

Indiv

17.2%

850.000

2026-08-13

Nguyễn Thành Đồng

Indiv

5.0%

249.000

2026-08-20

Tô Chí Thành

Indiv

3.1%

152.300

2026-08-13

Đặng Mạnh Cường

Indiv

0.7%

37.300

2026-08-13

Trần Hữu Hồng Trường

Indiv

0.3%

15.000

2026-08-13

Bùi Hồng Ánh

Indiv

0.2%

10.264

2015-09-14

Nguyễn Ngọc Minh

Indiv

0.2%

10.247

2015-09-14

Nguyễn Văn Sơn

Indiv

0.2%

9.749

2015-09-14

Nguyễn Đình Thảo

Indiv

0.2%

9.577

2015-09-14

Nguyễn Thanh Mai

Indiv

0.1%

4.727

2025-10-05

Board & Management

Tô Chí Thành3.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Hữu Hồng Trường0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hữu Thành

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Bích Hiền

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Hoàng Lan

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Top connections

PMJ51.0%POT50.0%PTP49.8%CKV49.8%VTC49.8%KST49.8%TST49.8%VTE49.8%ICT49.8%PTO49.8%ABC49.8%HAS49.8%

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: None
Purchase registrations: 1 by 1 trader; 1 without a stated volume

Nguyen Thanh Dong
Purchase · Insider
—
2026-08-19

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

See who owns this company, and what else they own

Investor opens the parts that take the most work to produce: the year-by-year track record, the forensic analysis and the ownership network.

See Investor

Computed 16/10/2026

PMT

Valuation Verdict

Backtest-calibrated reading

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

Telvina (PMT): modest DCF/PE blend valuation; upside limited and liquidity/earnings-quality concerns

Business Overview

Investment Thesis

Valuation Commentary

Bull vs Bear

Sector Context

Risk Factors

Catalysts

Forensic Assessment

Track Record

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

Director-deal registrations · 12 months