PTO

Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ - Xây dựng Công trình Bưu điện

ConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuCT

20.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

ConfidenceLow

Overvalued

−25.1%Model value vs price

−50%Fair Value+100%+500%

EV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle values the company at 14.976 VND a share from its published filings. The gap above is how far the latest close sits from that estimate. It measures the model's assumptions against the price: a large gap usually means the model and the market disagree about growth or risk.

Current: 20.000
Intrinsic Value: 14.976

Backtest-calibrated reading

−1.4%Median 12-month return vs sector

In the 2015–2024 backtest, Construction stocks with a model gap of this size returned a median of −1.4% against their sector over the following 12 months. The calibration keeps the model's ranking and converts the size of the gap into what that rank has earned historically.

Calibrated range, Construction

−11.7%+5.7%

Published filingsValued 16 Oct 2026

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle — order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model. An earlier version blended in a DCF leg, but testing showed the cash-flow forecast added noise rather than signal for project-based companies, so it was dropped in favor of the cleaner mid-cycle multiple.

Technical details

Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough. A discounted-cash-flow leg was tested and removed: project timing makes single-firm FCF forecasts unreliable and the DCF component degraded valuation accuracy.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

—

50%DCF Value

—

Blended Intrinsic

14.976

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Mid-cycle EBITDA1.6 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7

Net debt bridge−2.1 tỷ

See how this valuation was built

A free account opens the full working: every step of the calculation, the statements it reads and the scores derived from them.

Create a free account

Free, and it takes one click with Google.

See how the value moves with WACC and growth

Investor opens the parts that take the most work to produce: the year-by-year track record, the forensic analysis and the ownership network.

See Investor

Research Note

PTO: Small-cap construction services with limited upside and liquidity/quality concerns

Target VND 21,354 vs market VND 20,000 — implied upside 6.8% (confidence: low).

Business Overview

Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ - Xây dựng Công trình Bưu điện (PTO) is a construction and services company listed on UPCOM, operating in the construction and materials ICB subsector. The firm provides construction and related services to postal/telecom and other clients; its single largest shareholder is Tập Đoàn Bưu Chính Viễn Thông Việt Nam (owning 30.0%). PTO has a small free float (foreign room 0.0%) and total issued shares of 1,200,000.

Investment Thesis

PTO's recent top-line shows rapid growth: revenue rose from VND 28.4 bn in 2023 to VND 53.4 bn in 2025 (2025 YoY growth embedded in our ratios: Revenue YoY 45.0%). However, profitability is thin and volatile — net profit was VND 0.8 bn in 2025 after VND 1.5 bn in 2024, yielding a net margin of 1.5% and an ROE of 4.4%. Valuation per our EV/EBITDA mid-cycle model produces an intrinsic share value of VND 21,354 versus the current match price of VND 20,000 (6.8% upside) but model confidence is low. The firm's balance sheet shows modest scale (total assets VND 37.3 bn in 2025) and Debt/Equity around 1.0, implying leverage is meaningful relative to equity base.

Valuation Commentary

EV/EBITDA mid-cycle: we apply a mid-cycle EBITDA (own median) and a fair EV/EBITDA multiple calibrated to the company's historical range.

Mid-cycle EBITDA used: VND 1,637,797,685 (model input)
Fair EV/EBITDA multiple: 12.13 (source: own_history) vs sector median 9.85
Net cash position: net_debt = negative VND 2,105,520,811 (net cash contributes positively)
Calibration: isotonic recalibration raised raw intrinsic VND 18,305.5 to final VND 21,354; model confidence labelled low

The implied upside of 6.8% is narrow and, combined with low model confidence and material sanity flags (illiquid, mediocre earnings quality, manipulation risk), does not provide a meaningful margin of safety against execution and liquidity risks. We place limited confidence in the intrinsic number for position sizing or high-conviction buying.

Bull vs Bear

Bull Case

Revenue growth has been strong: VND 28.4 bn (2023) -> VND 41.2 bn (2024) -> VND 53.4 bn (2025), showing execution capacity to scale topline.
Model-implied valuation benefits from net cash: net_debt is negative VND 2,105,520,811, which supports enterprise value per share.
Fair EV/EBITDA multiple used (12.13) is above the sector median (9.85), implying potential re-rating if margins stabilise and liquidity improves.

Bear Case

Profitability is thin and uneven: net profit VND 0.8 bn in 2025 versus VND 1.5 bn in 2024; net margin only 1.5% and ROE 4.4%.
Liquidity and marketability are weak: average volume 2-week is 0.0 and the stock trades on UPCOM with foreign ownership room 0.0%, constraining flows.
Forensic/sanity flags: model_inputs list 'illiquid', 'mediocre_earnings_quality', and 'manipulation_risk' — earnings_quality score is 48.6, consistent with mediocre quality.
Valuation upside is narrow (6.8%) with low confidence; P/E is elevated at 29.6x relative to earnings size (EPS VND 676) and EV/EBITDA is 18.3x, above sector EV/EBITDA implied in our model.

Sector Context

The construction and building-materials sector in Vietnam is cyclical and sensitive to public investment, SBV liquidity and credit quotas, and land-use/right issues for real-estate-linked players. Peer universe is large (420 companies) — sector median implied upside in our coverage is 9.6%, higher than PTO's 6.8%. Many listed regional peers trade with more liquidity and clearer earnings histories; PTO's UPCOM listing and 0% foreign room place it at a structural disadvantage for institutional flows. VAS accounting and state-related ownership (largest shareholder is the national post & telecom group) may affect transparency and related-party dynamics compared with private peers.

Risk Factors

Low liquidity risk: avg_volume_2w is 0.0, increasing execution risk for institutional-sized trades.
Earnings quality and forensic flags: earnings_quality 48.6 and model sanity_flags include 'mediocre_earnings_quality' and 'manipulation_risk', raising concerns on reported profitability sustainability.
Concentrated ownership and state shareholder: Tập Đoàn Bưu Chính Viễn Thông Việt Nam holds 30.0%, which can limit free-float and influence related-party contract flows.
Narrow valuation margin: implied upside 6.8% with model confidence low provides little buffer to adverse operational or macro moves.
Operational volatility: net profit fell from VND 1.5 bn (2024) to VND 0.8 bn (2025), exposing sensitivity to project timing and margin compression.
Regulatory/sector tailwinds dependence: construction demand is tied to public investment cycles and bank lending (SBV quotas), which can tighten quickly.

Catalysts

Improved liquidity or listing migration that increases trading activity and foreign/institutional access.
A sustained recovery in margins or a clearly disclosed restructuring that boosts net margin above current 1.5%.
Disclosure improvements or third-party assurance addressing earnings quality concerns.
Large contract awards from state-related clients (given major shareholder links) that materially lift EBITDA.

Forensic Assessment

No Beneish M-Score is provided (null), so the standard M-Score test cannot be applied; however, internal model sanity_flags explicitly list 'manipulation_risk' and 'mediocre_earnings_quality', and the standalone earnings_quality score is 48.6 (moderate to mediocre). Given these signals plus thin profitability and a state-dominated shareholder base (30.0%), we flag earnings-quality and related-party/transaction transparency as the primary forensic concerns. If company disclosure improves or independent audit findings reduce uncertainty, forensic risk would decline.

Track Record

The model's historical record over 10 years shows a hit_rate of 44.4%, meaning directional accuracy (as defined) has been below 50% historically. Average upside in prior calls has been large (avg_upside_pct 138.7%), but that metric is skewed by a few big winners; the sub-50% hit rate advises caution in relying on model outputs without corroborating fundamental evidence. Combine the low model confidence on this specific valuation with the mediocre hit rate when sizing any position.

Written by a language model on 2026-08-11 from this page’s own model outputs and financial statements, and may quote figures from that date. Descriptive analysis, not investment advice — no buy, sell or hold recommendation is given or implied.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calc

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	37	32	25	31	30	29	37	42	45	40	37	48	43
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	2	3	4	3	3	0.7	2	2	6	12	10	5	9
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0	0.6	0.8	0	0	0.5	0	0.1	0.2	1	0	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	32	26	17	25	23	23	28	33	32	21	22	34	25
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	2	0.9	0.03	0.08	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.7	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3
Net Inventories	·	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	5	4	2	1	1	5
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	3	3	3	3	4	6	5	5	4	2	1	1	5
Other current assets	·	0.05	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.4	2	3	3	4	4	8	4
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	1
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	0.6	0.7	0.9	1	1	2	2	2	3	2	2	1	0.8
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.09	0.1	0.09	0.1	0.08	0.1	0.09	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.09	0.1	0.09	0.1	0.08	0.1	0.09	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.9	1	1.0	1	2	2	2	0.9	0.7
Tangible fixed assets	·	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.9	1	0.9	1	1	2	2	0.9	0.7
Intagible fixed assets	·	0	0	0	0	0	0.3	0.04	0.06	0.1	0	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.6	0.7	1	1	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.10
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.6	0.7	1	1	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.10
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	37	33	26	32	31	31	39	44	48	42	39	50	44
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	19	14	8	14	13	13	21	28	33	27	25	32	26
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	18	13	7	13	12	9	14	18	20	12	7	13	11
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0	0	0	0.5	0	0.5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0.9	0.3	0.2	0.02	1	0	0	0.01	0.01	0	0.2	1	0.5
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	1	1	1	1	1	4	7	10	13	16	19	19	14
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	18	19	17	18	18	18	18	16	15	14	14	17	18
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	18	19	17	18	18	18	18	16	15	14	14	17	18
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Other Reserves	·	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	1
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	2	3	3
Other Reserves	·	·	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.2	0.2	0.07	0.02	0.3	0.1	0.1	0	0
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	1	1	−0.04	1	0.9	1	2	0.1	−2	−2	−3	0.8	2
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	37	33	26	32	31	31	39	44	48	42	39	50	44
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12

See the statements behind the number

A free account opens the full working: every step of the calculation, the statements it reads and the scores derived from them.

Create a free account

Free, and it takes one click with Google.

See the 2015-present track record

Investor opens the parts that take the most work to produce: the year-by-year track record, the forensic analysis and the ownership network.

See Investor

See the earnings-quality breakdown

A free account opens the full working: every step of the calculation, the statements it reads and the scores derived from them.

Create a free account

Free, and it takes one click with Google.

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −1.78 · 73rd pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +0.01

Conservative vs VN peersAggressive

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.946

GMI

1.572

AQI

1.028

SGI

1.297

DEPI

1.129

SGAI

0.702

TATA

0.037

LVGI

1.200

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 0.1725th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 4.9%67th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.90

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.46

Positive

Composite

Fair

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✓Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.75×Interest Burden0.98×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover1.43×Leverage2.03=ROE4.4%

Price Risk

Momentum

+48.1%

Volatility

64.5%

Max Drawdown

−41.7%

See the Piotroski, Altman and DuPont detail

A free account opens the full working: every step of the calculation, the statements it reads and the scores derived from them.

Create a free account

Free, and it takes one click with Google.

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

29.58P/E

P/B: 1.31
P/S: 0.45
ROE: 4.4%
ROA: 2.3%
EPS: 676
BVPS: 15.297
Gross Margin: 12.0%
Net Margin: 1.5%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 2.06
EV/EBITDA: 18.30
Div Yield: 2.5%

Company Overview

Issued Shares: 1.2M
Charter Capital: 12.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3): Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry: Xây dựng
Company Type: CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PTO — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập Đoàn Bưu Chính Viễn Thông Việt Nam

Inst

30.0%

360.000

2026-08-10

Thân Quốc Tường

Indiv

3.1%

36.750

2025-10-05

Nguyễn Thị Chinh

Indiv

0.8%

9.840

2026-03-09

Võ Thành Nại

Indiv

0.2%

2.650

2025-10-05

Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Nga

Indiv

0.2%

2.400

2025-10-05

Board & Management

Nguyễn Tuấn Việt

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

PMJ51.0%POT50.0%PMT49.8%PTP49.0%CKV49.0%VTC46.7%KST33.9%TST32.8%VTE32.0%ICT31.4%ABC30.0%HAS30.0%

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 2 by 1 trader; 720,000 shares
Purchase registrations: None
Registered net, share of outstanding:: −60.00%

Vietnam Posts And Telecommunications Group
Sale · Institution
360,000
2025-12-05
Vietnam Posts And Telecommunications Group
Sale · Institution
360,000
2025-11-04

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

See who owns this company, and what else they own

Investor opens the parts that take the most work to produce: the year-by-year track record, the forensic analysis and the ownership network.

See Investor

Computed 16/10/2026

PTO

Valuation Verdict

Backtest-calibrated reading

Valuation Breakdown

PTO: Small-cap construction services with limited upside and liquidity/quality concerns

Business Overview

Investment Thesis

Valuation Commentary

Bull vs Bear

Sector Context

Risk Factors

Catalysts

Forensic Assessment

Track Record

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

Director-deal registrations · 12 months