APL
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — APL
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
APL exhibits an elevated risk of earnings manipulation, as indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -2.4032, which is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the company's strong earnings quality score of 87.8/100, particularly in cash conversion and receivables, suggests a solid operational foundation.
- Beneish M-Score of -2.4032 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
- SGI of 1.5002 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable.
- Earnings Quality Score of 87.8/100, with perfect scores in cash conversion and receivables, indicating strong operational efficiency.
- Low DSRI of 0.9731 suggests that accounts receivable are well managed relative to sales.
The majority ownership of 51.0% by Tổng Công ty Công nghiệp mỏ Việt Bắc TKV indicates a strong institutional backing, which can provide stability. However, the concentration of ownership may also lead to governance risks.
Investors should conduct further due diligence on revenue recognition practices given the elevated SGI and M-Score. Monitoring future earnings reports for consistency with cash flows is advisable.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
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> mapping common ownership for APL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate