XMC

Construction

Công ty cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây dựng Xuân Mai

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

9.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

24.652

Current

9.300

Gap

+165.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

26.24%

Kd(1-t)

4.81%

D/(D+E)

73.76%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

10.232

50%DCF Value

39.073

Blended Intrinsic

24.652

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — XMC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.81

Low Risk

DSRI

0.827

GMI

0.981

AQI

1.526

SGI

1.278

DEPI

0.995

SGAI

2.573

TATA

-0.072

LVGI

1.056

XMC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.8125, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the high SGAI of 2.5726 and low earnings quality metrics raise concerns about operational efficiency and revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags

SGAI of 2.5726 suggests excessive selling, which may indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Earnings Quality Score of 62.8/100, particularly low scores in eq_margin (0.0/100) and eq_revenue (0.0/100), signal potential issues with revenue sustainability.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.8125 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
High cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables quality (100.0/100) suggest strong cash flow management.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Công ty TNHH Kiên Hùng holding 51% of shares, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest among major shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor operational metrics and revenue recognition practices, given the elevated SGAI and low earnings quality scores. Consider a cautious approach to investment until further transparency in financial reporting is established.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.95

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.34

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+37.7%

Volatility

68.7%

Max Drawdown

-26.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

26.29P/E

P/B0.73

P/S0.32

ROE2.8%

ROA0.8%

EPS347.16

BVPS12470.82

Gross Margin9.0%

Net Margin1.2%

D/E2.81

Current Ratio1.15

Rev Growth27.8%

Profit Growth216.9%

EV/EBITDA-268.42

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

71.4M

Charter Capital

714.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for XMC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH Kiên Hùng

Inst

51.0%

10.2 trieu

Nguyễn Đức Cử

Indiv

29.7%

21.2 trieu

Đinh Thị Thanh Hà

Indiv

28.2%

20.2 trieu

Nguyễn Minh Trang

Indiv

24.9%

17.8 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Thu Huyền

Indiv

9.7%

5.3 trieu

nguyen-tho-phung

Indiv

3.7%

2.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Đầu tư I.P.A

Inst

3.2%

630.384

Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Tập trung Cổ tức DC

Inst

2.9%

285.900

Phạm Thị Hiền

Indiv

2.8%

2.0 trieu

Đào Văn Công

Indiv

1.3%

692.436

Đặng Hoàng Huy

Indiv

1.0%

550.337

Nguyễn Trung Kiên

Indiv

1.0%

200.000

nguyen-cao-thang

Indiv

0.4%

256.054

Mai Văn Định

Indiv

0.3%

187.227

nguyen-van-da

Indiv

0.2%

41.038

Vũ Ngọc Nho

Indiv

0.2%

104.500

Trần Văn Tuấn

Indiv

0.2%

31.800

Trần Trọng Diên

Indiv

0.1%

28.376

Trần Văn Liền

Indiv

0.1%

26.950

Đỗ Thạch Cương

Indiv

0.1%

25.200

Đinh Viết Long

Indiv

0.1%

80.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Đức Cử29.7%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thọ Phùng3.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Cao Thắng0.4%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Tổng Giám đốc

Mai Văn Định0.1%

Kế toán trưởng

Đinh Viết Long0.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Dương Anh Tuấn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Kim Mạnh Hà

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Trung Thắng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Thị Huệ

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Minh Đức

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Văn Phong

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Thị Thanh Huyền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Khắc Sơn

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

LƯƠNG ANH TUẤN

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

NGC51.0%DNC2 links LPB2 links APL28.2%VND25.8%DVC24.9%SED24.9%HOT20.0%CRE10.9%VVS10.3%TNI9.7%TDF9.7%

Computed 12/04/2026