BHN

Consumer

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước giải khát Hà Nội

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT

30.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

37.206

Current

30.500

Gap

+22.0%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

72.55%

Kd(1-t)

6.24%

D/(D+E)

27.45%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→453.81B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

453.81B

Growth Rate

4.00%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

37.206

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BHN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.24

Moderate

DSRI

1.371

GMI

0.940

AQI

0.788

SGI

1.037

DEPI

1.197

SGAI

1.052

TATA

-0.005

LVGI

1.035

BHN exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.2441, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the high ownership concentration by the Ministry of Industry and Trade raises potential governance risks, especially in the context of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam.

Red Flags

Revenue quality is extremely low with an eq_revenue score of 0.0/100, suggesting potential issues with revenue recognition or sustainability.
The DSRI of 1.3710 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

The earnings quality score of 80.0/100 is strong, particularly with an eq_accrual score of 98.0/100, indicating good cash flow management relative to earnings.
The company maintains a low GMI of 0.9396, suggesting stable gross margins.

Ownership Risk

The Ministry of Industry and Trade holds 81.8% of shares, which poses a risk of political influence and lack of minority shareholder protection, common in Vietnamese SOEs.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of high state ownership on governance. A cautious approach is recommended, potentially waiting for clearer signals of operational stability before investing.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

4.20

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.45

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-6.6%

Volatility

25.4%

Max Drawdown

-20.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

15.09P/E

P/B1.50

P/S0.83

ROE10.1%

ROA6.3%

EPS2021.21

BVPS20371.34

Gross Margin28.4%

Net Margin5.5%

D/E0.40

Current Ratio3.04

Rev Growth4.2%

Profit Growth26.4%

EV/EBITDA10.26

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

231.8M

Charter Capital

2318.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Bia và đồ uống

Sub-industry

Sản xuất bia

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BHN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Ministry Of Industry And Trade Of The Socialist Republic Of Vietnam

State

81.8%

189.6 trieu

Carlsberg Breweries A/s

Indiv

17.3%

40.2 trieu

Công ty TNHH Thương Mại Carlsberg Việt Nam

Inst

0.2%

381.400

Board & Management

Trần Đình Thanh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngô Quế Lâm

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Quản Lê Hà

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trần Thuận An

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Xuân Dũng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Hữu Quang

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thu Thủy

Kế toán trưởng

Bùi Trường Thắng

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Thiều Hồng Nhung

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Chử Thị Thu Trang

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Trung Kiên

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Minh Tuấn

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

TVN93.9%VEA88.5%

Computed 12/04/2026