VEA
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VEA
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
The forensic assessment of VEA indicates elevated risk primarily due to its earnings quality metrics and ownership structure. While the Beneish M-Score suggests no immediate signs of manipulation, the low earnings quality score and significant state ownership raise concerns about transparency and potential influence on financial reporting.
- Earnings Quality Score of 35.5/100 indicates significant issues with earnings quality, particularly with cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue recognition (0.0/100).
- High state ownership at 88.5% may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced accountability in financial disclosures.
- Beneish M-Score of -1.1633 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting that the likelihood of earnings manipulation is low.
- Strong receivables (100.0/100) and margin metrics (100.0/100) indicate effective management of these areas, which could support revenue generation.
The dominant state ownership (88.5%) presents a significant risk, as it may lead to less rigorous oversight and potential misalignment of interests between the state and minority shareholders.
Investors should proceed with caution, closely monitoring future earnings reports and cash flow statements. Engaging with management for clarity on revenue recognition practices and governance structures is advisable.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for VEA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate