HGT
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HGT
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
HGT exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.7122, which is close to the manipulation threshold. The earnings quality score of 36.1/100, driven by poor cash conversion and receivables metrics, further raises red flags regarding the reliability of reported earnings.
- Beneish M-Score of -1.7122 is close to the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting potential earnings manipulation.
- Earnings Quality Score of 36.1/100 indicates significant issues, particularly with eq_receivables and eq_margin both at 0.0/100, highlighting a lack of reliable revenue recognition.
- DSRI of 2.1069 indicates that the company is managing its inventory effectively compared to sales, which could be a sign of operational efficiency.
- The presence of institutional ownership, with the largest shareholder holding 45.0%, may provide some level of oversight and stability.
The high concentration of institutional ownership (75.5% combined) could lead to potential conflicts of interest or governance issues, particularly if these institutions have aligned interests that do not prioritize minority shareholders.
Investors should conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and revenue recognition practices, before considering an investment in HGT. Monitoring upcoming earnings reports for improvements in cash conversion metrics will be crucial.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for HGT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate