HGT

Công ty Cổ phần Du lịch Hương Giang

VietnamCyclicalsDu lịch và Giải tríDu lịch & Giải tríUPCOMCT

12.100

VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

−4.2%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 12.100
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 11.592

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

The closing price is too old for comparison.
Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 28 Jan 2026

Model reliability: Very Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Close date unavailableRecalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Du lịch và Giải trí→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Du lịch và Giải trí” maps to the cyclical group.

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details

Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→−3.41B

Years of data→7

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→12.100

Calibrated value vs last close→−4.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

11.592

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Mid-cycle EBITDA−3.4 tỷyears of data: 7

HGT among Cyclicals

Every stock in the sector, HGT marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is HGT. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	102	127	64	64	66	60	80	77	68	206	55	51	53
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	63	54	43	43	38	41	51	62	57	143	34	28	28
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0	45	0	0	0	0.5	0.8	0.8	1	0.8	0	2	0.8
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	39	27	19	18	27	18	27	13	9	61	19	19	21
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	21	0.09	0.2	0.7	11	2	3	2	0.2	1	0.8	0.5	1
Net Inventories	·	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.8	0.9	1	1	0.9
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.8	0.9	1	1	0.9
Other current assets	·	0.9	0.3	3	3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.05	0.9	1	2
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.8
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	152	129	148	149	134	165	190	193	200	165	191	213	219
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	30	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	30	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	37	39	43	47	25	39	41	43	39	44	51	86	89
Tangible fixed assets	·	36	38	42	46	24	38	40	42	38	43	50	56	59
Intagible fixed assets	·	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	82	85	93	92	94	111	125	125	116	86	88	100	106
Investments in associate companies	·	112	112	118	118	118	111	125	125	116	86	88	92	91
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	3	3	3	15	15
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−31	−28	−25	−27	−24	0	−3	−3	−3	−3	−3	−7	0
Other non-current assets	·	5	6	7	6	2	4	6	11	11	16	19	28	25
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	5	6	7	6	2	4	6	11	11	16	19	27	25
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	254	256	212	213	200	226	270	270	268	371	246	264	272
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	68	50	70	72	54	44	46	49	44	148	16	20	19
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	60	40	50	50	43	41	44	46	43	146	16	18	16
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	2	2	11	11	9	1	1	1	0.5	3	0	0	0
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.8	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.3	1
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	7	9	21	22	10	3	2	3	1	2	0	2	2
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	7	9	21	22	10	3	2	3	1	2	0	2	2
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	186	206	142	141	147	182	224	222	224	223	231	243	253
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	186	206	142	141	147	182	224	222	224	223	231	243	253
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.8	0.8
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	−61	−41	−106	−107	−101	−65	−23	−25	−24	−25	−19	−5	4
Minority Interest	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	254	256	212	213	200	226	270	270	268	371	246	264	272
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	19	19	12	12	12	12	11	0	0	46	0	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200	200
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −1.71 · 75th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −0.91

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

2.107

GMI

1.792

AQI

1.287

SGI

0.670

DEPI

0.939

SGAI

1.967

TATA

−0.041

LVGI

1.370

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: −0.2419th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 17.9%89th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: 0.30×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 1
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.91

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.52

Positive

Composite

30 to 49

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✗Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden1.02×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin−0.51×Turnover0.15×Leverage1.36=ROE−10.7%

Price Risk

Momentum

+0.0%

Volatility

107.0%

Max Drawdown

−32.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

—P/E

P/B: 1.30
P/S: 6.29
ROE: −10.1%
ROA: −7.8%
EPS: −995
BVPS: 9.321
Gross Margin: 13.1%
Net Margin: −51.7%
D/E: 0.05
Current Ratio: 1.70
Rev Growth: −33.0%
Profit Growth: −130.8%
EV/EBITDA: —
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 20.0M
Charter Capital: 200B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Du lịch và Giải trí
Industry (ICB L3): Du lịch & Giải trí
Sub-industry: Vận tải hành khách & Du lịch
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Crystal Treasure Limited

Inst

45.0%

9.0M

2026-06-30

Công ty TNHH Tấn Trường

Inst

20.0%

4.0M

2024-06-30

Công ty TNHH Thạch Anh Trắng

Inst

9.6%

1.9M

2024-06-30

Công Ty Tnhh Tập Đoàn Bitexco

Inst

9.1%

1.8M

2024-06-30

Công Ty CP Đầu Tư Tân Tiến

Inst

5.8%

1.2M

2026-06-30

Lê Thị Ngọc Thủy

Indiv

4.5%

890,000

2023-06-27

Fumiyo Okuda

Indiv

1.8%

350,000

2026-06-30

Đinh Nhật Tân

Indiv

1.5%

300,000

2026-06-30

Board & Management

Fumiyo Okuda1.8%

Member of Supervisors Board

Đinh Nhật Tân1.5%

Member of Management Board

Nguyễn Phước Quý Thịnh

Member of Supervisors Board

Hồ Văn Toại

Spokesman

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 1 by 1 trader; 1 without a stated volume
Purchase registrations: None

Công Ty CP Đầu Tư Tân Tiến
Sale · Institution
—
2026-01-06

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

HGT among Cyclicals

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

HGT among Cyclicals