VNM

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Sữa Việt Nam

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

61.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

High

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

53.493

Current

61.500

Gap

-13.0%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

65.71%

Kd(1-t)

6.52%

D/(D+E)

34.29%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.79%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→6906.13B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

6906.13B

Growth Rate

3.79%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

53.493

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VNM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.48

Moderate

DSRI

0.939

GMI

1.006

AQI

0.919

SGI

1.030

DEPI

0.998

SGAI

0.994

TATA

0.014

LVGI

1.030

VNM demonstrates a low risk of earnings manipulation as indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -2.4826, significantly below the manipulation threshold. The company's earnings quality score of 84.3/100, particularly strong in accruals and margins, suggests robust financial health despite some concerns in revenue quality.

Red Flags

The SGI of 1.0302 indicates a slight increase in sales growth which may warrant monitoring for sustainability.
The eq_revenue score of 48.8/100 is notably low, suggesting potential issues with revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

The earnings quality score of 84.3/100 reflects strong overall earnings quality, particularly in receivables (100.0/100) and margins (100.0/100).
The low DSRI of 0.9386 indicates that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales, reducing the risk of overstatement.

Ownership Risk

The significant state ownership at 36.0% could lead to potential influence on corporate governance and decision-making, which may affect minority shareholders. However, the presence of institutional investors like F&N Dairy Investments (22.3%) provides a stabilizing factor.

Recommendation

Continue to monitor revenue recognition practices closely, particularly given the low eq_revenue score. Consider engaging with management to gain insights into sales growth sustainability and strategies to enhance revenue quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

6.61

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.08

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+20.4%

Volatility

38.6%

Max Drawdown

-20.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

15.44P/E

P/B4.73

P/S2.28

ROE29.9%

ROA17.4%

EPS4502.58

BVPS14682.31

Gross Margin41.2%

Net Margin14.8%

D/E0.55

Current Ratio1.96

Rev Growth3.1%

Profit Growth0.2%

EV/EBITDA11.97

Div Yield3.6%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2090.0M

Charter Capital

20899.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VNM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước

State

36.0%

752.5 trieu

F&N Dairy Investments Private Limited

Inst

22.3%

465.8 trieu

Lê Ngọc Long

Indiv

13.6%

203.500

F&n Bev Manufacturing Pte. Ltd.

Inst

2.7%

56.4 trieu

Platinum Victory Private Limited

Inst

2.5%

52.6 trieu

Ngân hàng Deutsche Aktiengesellschaft

Inst

2.2%

26.3 trieu

Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF

Indiv

1.3%

26.7 trieu

Employees Provident Fund Board

Inst

1.3%

26.6 trieu

The Emerging Markets Fund Of The Genesis Group Trust For Employee Benefit Plans

Inst

1.2%

24.7 trieu

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellchaft, London Branch

Inst

1.1%

19.3 trieu

First State Global Umbrella Fund Plc - First State Asian Equity Plus Fund

Inst

1.0%

21.3 trieu

Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund

Inst

0.9%

18.0 trieu

Stichting Depositary Apg Emerging Markets Equity Pool

Inst

0.8%

13.5 trieu

The Genesis Emerging Markets Investment Company

Inst

0.7%

12.5 trieu

VanEck Vietnam ETF

Inst

0.7%

15.1 trieu

amersham industries limited

Inst

0.7%

10.3 trieu

Vietnam Ventures Limited

Inst

0.6%

10.4 trieu

Matthews Asia Dividend Fund

Inst

0.5%

9.6 trieu

Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ltd.

Inst

0.5%

9.3 trieu

Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Limited

Inst

0.5%

6.3 trieu

Norges Bank

Inst

0.5%

10.8 trieu

beira limited

Inst

0.5%

5.9 trieu

Công ty TNHH Manulife (Việt Nam)

Inst

0.5%

9.7 trieu

Merrill Lynch International

Inst

0.4%

9.4 trieu

Fidelity Investment Trust - Fidelity Series Emerging Markets Fund

Inst

0.4%

7.8 trieu

KIM Vietnam Growth Equity Fund

Inst

0.4%

9.5 trieu

Citigroup Global Market Ltd

Inst

0.4%

8.6 trieu

Government Of Singapore

State

0.4%

7.3 trieu

Mai Kiều Liên

Indiv

0.3%

6.4 trieu

KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund

Inst

0.3%

3.2 trieu

Grinling International Limited

Inst

0.2%

2.9 trieu

Arisaig ASEAN Fund Limited

Inst

0.2%

2.0 trieu

Food & Beverage

Indiv

0.1%

1.8 trieu

DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company

Inst

0.1%

1.5 trieu

PXP Vietnam Emerging Equity Fund

Inst

0.1%

1.9 trieu

Board & Management

Mai Kiều Liên0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hòa

Giám đốc điều hành chuỗi cung ứng

Trần Minh Văn

Giám đốc điều hành sản xuất

Lê Thành Liêm

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc Tài chính/Kế toán trưởng

Trịnh Quốc Dũng

Giám đốc điều hành Phát triển vùng nguyên vật liệu

Bùi Thị Hương

Giám đốc Điều hành Nhân sự - Hành chính

Michael Chye Hin Fah

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Lê Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Tiêu Yến Trinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Quang Trí

Giám đốc Marketing

Nguyễn Quốc Khánh

Giám đốc Khối Nghiên cứu phát triển

Alain Xavier Cany

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Trung

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Lee Meng Tat

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Ngọc Thạch

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Thị Thu Hà

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Băng Tâm

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

SJG99.8%MIE99.6%TVN93.9%VGV87.3%VNP65.8%DVN2 links SEA63.4%QTC53.8%VGT53.5%CAG53.0%BMI50.7%VXB49.8%

Computed 12/04/2026