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Consumer sector

NDP

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Dược phẩm 2/9
Y tế/Dược phẩmCT
25.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
27.645
Current
25.300
Gap
+9.3%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTY tếConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
84.22%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.35%
x
D/(D+E)
15.78%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.33%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF18.30B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
18.30B
Growth Rate
4.33%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
27.645
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NDP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

65
Fair
Accrual Quality
87
Cash Conversion
32
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-1.90
Moderate
DSRI
1.234
GMI
0.803
AQI
1.694
SGI
1.175
DEPI
1.163
SGAI
1.125
TATA
0.034
LVGI
1.369

NDP's Beneish M-Score of -1.8977 indicates a potential risk of earnings manipulation, as it exceeds the threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 64.5/100, particularly low cash conversion metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.8977 indicates potential earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings quality cash conversion score of 31.6/100 is significantly low, suggesting poor cash flow relative to earnings.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables and margin metrics both score 100.0/100, indicating strong performance in these areas.
Ownership Risk

The top two institutional shareholders control 48.8% of NDP, which may lead to concentrated decision-making and potential conflicts of interest, especially in a market where SOEs often have significant influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor NDP's cash flow and earnings quality metrics before making investment decisions, and consider engaging with management for clarity on financial practices.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.47
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.13
Positive
Composite
56
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+2.7%
Volatility
149.1%
Max Drawdown
-39.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
13.94P/E
P/B0.94
P/S2.38
ROE7.3%
ROA5.9%
EPS1648.69
BVPS23070.44
Gross Margin44.0%
Net Margin18.2%
D/E0.28
Current Ratio3.41
Rev Growth18.9%
Profit Growth14.1%
EV/EBITDA12.55
Div Yield2.3%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
11.1M
Charter Capital
111.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Y tế
Industry (ICB L3)
Dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Dược phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NDP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ Phần Xây Dựng Thương Mại Dịch Vụ G.b Sài Gòn
Inst
34.3%
3.8 trieu
Công ty TNHH MTV Dược Sài Gòn
Inst
14.5%
1.6 trieu
Ngô Thị Cẩm Ly
Indiv
5.8%
638.734
Trần Quyền Lễ
Indiv
2.3%
256.028
Chu Mai Hào
Indiv
1.3%
72.769
Nguyễn Thị Ánh Hoa
Indiv
1.0%
109.642
Cao Tứ Tài
Indiv
0.9%
48.872
Trương Thị Thái Hòa
Indiv
0.8%
41.575
Bùi Ngọc Thắng
Indiv
0.6%
34.522
Phạm Thị Hoàng
Indiv
0.3%
16.087
Nguyễn An Giang
Indiv
0.2%
20.000
Huỳnh Nguyên Thanh
Indiv
0.2%
20.000
Ngô Nam Thắng
Indiv
0.2%
20.088
Trịnh Bích Dung
Indiv
0.2%
20.000
Board & Management
Trương Thị Thái Hòa0.8%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Bùi Ngọc Thắng0.6%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trịnh Bích Dung0.2%
Giám đốc Tài chính/Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn An Giang0.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Nguyên Thanh0.2%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Nam Thắng0.2%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Minh Đức
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Lưu Hiền
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Phạm Thiện Thuận
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Hoàng Xuân Minh Trí
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Thị Nam Hà
Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Xuân Vinh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đào Thị Hằng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Top connections
Computed 12/04/2026
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