NDP

Công ty Cổ phần Dược phẩm 2/9

VietnamConsumerY tếDược phẩmUPCOMCT

18.900

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+11.9%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 18.900
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 21.142

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Y tế→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Y tế” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.910

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.10%

E/(D+E)

97.79%

Kd(1-t)

5.17%

D/(D+E)

2.21%

WACC

10.96%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→18.35B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→18.900

Calibrated value vs last close→+11.9%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

21.142

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.96%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend

Base cash flow18.4 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
9.0%	22.070	22.070	22.070	22.070	22.070
10.0%	21.186	21.186	21.186	21.186	21.186
11.0%	21.142	21.142	21.167	21.186	21.186
12.0%	21.142	21.142	21.142	21.142	21.142
13.0%	21.142	21.142	21.142	21.142	21.142

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

NDP among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, NDP marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is NDP. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	170	186	204	214	208	195	185	193	167	130	99	73	80
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	12	10	8	10	14	23	19	23	25	9	16	10	7
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	75	120	157	139	143	131	123	123	100	78	2	5	7
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	50	30	21	34	21	17	12	18	12	13	50	24	29
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	18	12	5	12	2	2	2	6	4	1	0.4	0.5	2
Net Inventories	·	32	24	19	31	29	25	30	28	30	30	30	33	38
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	33	24	20	31	29	25	30	29	31	30	31	33	38
Other current assets	·	0.8	2	0.08	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.6	0	0	0.7	0.07
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.09	0.07
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	154	140	87	66	65	72	77	75	72	50	72	89	93
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.05	0.05	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.05	0.05	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	22	21	24	27	32	38	42	33	33	33	36	37	57
Tangible fixed assets	·	17	17	20	23	27	33	36	27	28	28	31	33	36
Intagible fixed assets	·	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	5	5	21
Investment in properties	·	9	10	10	11	12	12	13	14	15	15	35	37	22
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	15	14
Investments in associate companies	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	14
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09
Other non-current assets	·	18	17	18	19	19	20	21	24	24	1	0.8	0.3	0.5
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	16	17	17	18	19	20	20	22	23	0.5	0	0	0
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	324	327	291	281	273	267	262	268	239	180	171	162	174
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	53	71	46	44	48	49	50	109	89	36	41	38	58
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	50	55	43	42	45	46	46	49	33	35	40	35	53
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	7	5	0	0.9	1	0	0	0	9	2	6	24
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	9	8	8	7	6	7	6	6	0.7	1	2	0.7	0.02
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	3	16	3	2	3	3	4	60	56	2	1.0	3	5
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	14	0.7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	271	256	245	237	225	218	212	159	150	143	130	123	116
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	271	256	245	237	225	218	212	159	150	143	130	123	116
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	56	56	56	56	56	56
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	73	68	65	61	58	55	52	49	44	40	35	25	24
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	67	56	49	44	35	32	29	34	30	31	22	20	14
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	324	327	291	281	273	267	262	268	239	180	171	162	174
Convertible bonds (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	55	53	0	0	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	56	56	56	56	56	56

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

75th–90th

M −1.62 · 77th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +0.30

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.428

GMI

0.886

AQI

1.115

SGI

1.177

DEPI

1.083

SGAI

1.101

TATA

0.053

LVGI

0.737

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 0.6935th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 5.7%71st pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

NDP's forensic indicators show mixed signals. The Beneish M-Score is -1.617 (77th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.30, suggesting accounting aggressiveness is higher than most Vietnam-listed peers and has moved toward more aggressive territory; several Beneish subcomponents are elevated (DSRI 1.4284, AQI 1.1151, DEPI 1.0831, SGAI 1.1015). At the same time, solvency and operating-fundamentals scores are resilient: Altman Z-Score 4.15 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 7/9, though earnings quality components flag weak cash conversion (20.2/100) and zero receivables-quality score.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score -1.617 (77th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +0.30) — the absolute score is above the US -1.78 cutoff but that cutoff is US-calibrated; the high Vietnam percentile and upward move indicate comparatively more aggressive accounting among peers.
DSRI 1.4284 — days-sales receivable index above 1.0 suggests receivables or revenue recognition have grown faster than sales.
AQI 1.1151 — asset quality index >1.0 indicates rising proportion of non-current or potentially less-liquid assets (e.g., long-term receivables, prepayments, capitalized costs).
TATA 0.0526 — total accruals to total assets positive (5.26%), a nontrivial accruals contribution to earnings despite accruals-quality subscore being relatively better than other dimensions.
Earnings-quality Cash conversion 20.2/100 and 3-year cash conversion ratio 0.69 (35th percentile) — net profit is not being converted to cash at the same pace as many peers.
Receivables quality 0.0/100 and the Vietnamese check 'receivables outside the trade cycle' = 5.7% of total assets (70th percentile) — a material portion of assets are receivables/prepayments/loans outside normal trade terms, which aligns with AQI and DSRI concerns.

Positive Signals

Altman Z-Score 4.15 — places the company in the model's safe zone for bankruptcy distance.
Piotroski F-Score 7/9 — indicates generally strong accounting and operating fundamentals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests.
Accruals quality subscore 79.0/100 — relative strength in accrual measurement compared with other earnings-quality dimensions.
No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (parent, excluding minority interest) positive; and zero years of parent net loss up to FY2025 — the statutory balance-sheet and profit metrics show profitability and positive equity.

Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: three institutional holders (G.b Sài Gòn 34.3%, Dược Sài Gòn 14.5%, Thiên Hải 5.1%) together control a large block, while two named individuals hold smaller stakes (Ngô Thị Cẩm Ly 5.8%, Trần Quyền Lễ 2.3%). Director-deal disclosures between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show one sale registration (73,600 shares) and one purchase registration (volume not specified); these are registered intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades.

To check in the filings

Compare the FY2025 note(s) and schedule(s) for 'receivables and prepayments' with the balance-sheet line to verify the 5.7% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties/related parties.
Reconcile the cash-flow statement (operating cash flow) to the income statement to confirm the 3-year cash conversion inputs that produced the 0.69 ratio and the 20.2/100 cash-conversion score.
Examine the notes supporting non-current assets and 'other receivables' to quantify components driving the AQI 1.1151 (e.g., long-term loans to related parties, prepaid expenses capitalized, or intangible capitalizations).
Review the disclosures accompanying the director-deal registrations in exchange filings to see who registered the sale/purchase, the stated intention, and whether volumes/prices were clarified in subsequent filings.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

4.15

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.16

Positive

Composite

50 to 69

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✓Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.24×Turnover0.37×Leverage1.20=ROE8.4%

Price Risk

Momentum

+44.0%

Volatility

78.1%

Max Drawdown

−35.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

9.26P/E

P/B: 0.78
P/S: 1.78
ROE: 8.6%
ROA: 7.0%
EPS: 2.052
BVPS: 24.397
Gross Margin: 49.7%
Net Margin: 19.2%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 3.37
EV/EBITDA: 4.78
Div Yield: 2.6%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 11.1M
Charter Capital: 111B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Y tế
Industry (ICB L3): Dược phẩm
Sub-industry: Dược phẩm
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for NDP. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ Phần Xây Dựng Thương Mại Dịch Vụ G.b Sài Gòn

Inst

34.3%

3.8M

2025-12-31

Công ty TNHH MTV Dược Sài Gòn

Inst

14.5%

1.6M

2026-06-30

Ngô Thị Cẩm Ly

Indiv

5.8%

638,734

2026-06-30

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại Thiên Hải

Inst

5.1%

562,290

2026-10-16

Trần Quyền Lễ

Indiv

2.3%

256,028

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Thị Ánh Hoa

Indiv

1.0%

109,642

2026-06-30

Trần Tấn Đạt

Indiv

0.2%

23,600

2026-06-30

Ngô Nam Thắng

Indiv

0.2%

20,088

2026-06-30

Nguyễn An Giang

Indiv

0.2%

20,000

2026-06-30

Huỳnh Nguyên Thanh

Indiv

0.2%

20,000

2026-06-30

Trịnh Bích Dung

Indiv

0.2%

20,000

2026-06-30

Board & Management

Trần Tấn Đạt0.2%

Member of Management Board

Nguyễn An Giang0.2%

Vice Chairman of Management Board

Huỳnh Nguyên Thanh0.2%

Vice Chairman of Management Board

Trịnh Bích Dung0.2%

Chief Financial Officer

Top connections

VPR48.7%PMC43.4%YTC29.0%PNG19.4%HTC17.0%GMC15.9%TMS7.5%CMN5.1%MRF5.1%ITC5.1%TNC5.1%

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 1 by 1 trader; 73,600 shares
Purchase registrations: 1 by 1 trader; 1 without a stated volume

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại Thiên Hải
Purchase · Institution
—
2026-10-16
Nguyễn Anh Hùng
Sale · Insider
73,600
2025-12-03

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

NDP among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

NDP among Consumer