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Utilities sector

NVP

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Nước sạch Vĩnh Phúc
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
35.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
4.158
Current
35.700
Gap
-88.3%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.06%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS220
Payout ratio38.7%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
220
Base Growth
2.06%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
4.158
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NVP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

66
Fair
Accrual Quality
54
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
14
Revenue Quality
63

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.62
Low Risk
DSRI
0.419
GMI
1.019
AQI
0.667
SGI
1.030
DEPI
1.052
SGAI
0.827
TATA
-0.124
LVGI
0.884

NVP exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.62, significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 66.1 suggests some concerns, particularly in margin and revenue metrics, which could impact overall financial health.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality margin score is only 13.9/100, indicating potential issues with profitability.
  • The DSRI of 0.4195 suggests a significant decrease in receivables relative to sales, which may indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • The cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
  • Ownership by the state at 96.4% suggests a stable governance structure, reducing the risk of sudden ownership changes.
Ownership Risk

The high state ownership at 96.4% provides stability but raises concerns about transparency and accountability, as decisions may prioritize state interests over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor NVP's earnings quality metrics, particularly the low margin score, and consider a cautious approach until improvements in profitability and transparency are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.20
Grey Zone
Sharpe
1.67
Excellent
Composite
57
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+81.4%
Volatility
172.6%
Max Drawdown
-53.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
115.58P/E
P/B5.56
P/S7.32
ROE6.8%
ROA4.8%
EPS843.39
BVPS12571.19
Gross Margin30.8%
Net Margin8.8%
D/E0.39
Current Ratio1.89
Rev Growth3.0%
Profit Growth77.6%
EV/EBITDA21.51
Div Yield0.5%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
11.0M
Charter Capital
109.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NVP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Vĩnh Phúc
State
96.4%
10.6 trieu
Ban chấp hành Công đoàn Công ty Cổ phần nước sạch Vĩnh Phúc
Inst
1.0%
112.200
Ngô Trường Giang
Indiv
0.1%
15.000
Đinh Thế Kỳ
Indiv
0.1%
14.100
Board & Management
Ngô Trường Giang0.1%
Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đinh Thế Kỳ0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Tiến Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Thị Vinh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Văn Tiến
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Đức Thịnh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Thị Hương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hồng Phú
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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