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Utilities sector

VPW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp thoát nước số 1 Vĩnh Phúc
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
9.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
7.026
Current
9.500
Gap
-26.0%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.26%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS356
Payout ratio46.1%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
356
Base Growth
3.26%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
7.026
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VPW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

56
Fair
Accrual Quality
37
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
31
Revenue Quality
14

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.32
Low Risk
DSRI
0.887
GMI
1.140
AQI
0.947
SGI
1.064
DEPI
1.059
SGAI
0.909
TATA
-0.188
LVGI
0.980

VPW exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.3236, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 56.4/100 reveals significant weaknesses in revenue and margin metrics, which could pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality score of 56.4/100, particularly low revenue score of 14.0/100, indicating potential issues with revenue recognition.
  • High reliance on state ownership (96.8%) may lead to governance issues and lack of accountability.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.3236, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting lower risk of earnings manipulation.
  • Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates effective cash generation relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The overwhelming state ownership at 96.8% raises concerns about governance and transparency, potentially limiting minority shareholder influence and accountability.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of high state ownership on governance. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach to investment in VPW until further clarity on earnings quality is established.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.18
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.00
Negative
Composite
42
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-0.2%
Volatility
0.0%
Max Drawdown
-0.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
32.36P/E
P/B0.72
P/S0.49
ROE4.8%
ROA2.1%
EPS587.19
BVPS13262.53
Gross Margin22.0%
Net Margin3.0%
D/E1.23
Current Ratio1.30
Rev Growth6.4%
Profit Growth-35.5%
EV/EBITDA3.33
Div Yield1.1%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
11.2M
Charter Capital
111.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VPW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Vĩnh Phúc
State
96.8%
10.8 trieu
Trần Quang Ngọc
Indiv
0.6%
65.000
Lê Thị Kim Thanh
Indiv
0.4%
44.300
Nguyễn Văn Khánh
Indiv
0.2%
20.600
Board & Management
Lê Thị Kim Thanh0.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Khánh0.2%
Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Thị Thúy Ngọc
Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán/Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Thanh Hải
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
NINH DUY GIANG
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Duy Thập
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thúy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Thị Hồng Hạnh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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