Intrinsic value vs last close
Model estimate- Last close (USD)
- 51.63
- Intrinsic value (USD)
- 49.66
Intrinsic value = sector model's value (no adjustment)
Earnings-capitalised value
Cost of equity 10.1% · price volatility 21.8%
Last year's earnings per share, capitalised at a cost of equity that rises with this share's own price swings, growing at the sector's long-run rate.
This is a different figure from the intrinsic value above. The intrinsic value is what the sector model says the business is worth. On Vietnamese stocks this figure has ranked future returns best in our track record; this market has no track record here yet.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Estimates a fair price-to-book (P/B) multiple from how the market prices listed peer banks on their book value and returns. ROE, asset size, a bad-loan indicator and credit growth are weighed together to place this bank among its peers.
Technical details
A bank's free cash flow does not mean what it means for an ordinary company. Book value, ROE and asset quality give a better frame of reference for valuing a bank.
A robust (Huber) multivariate regression estimates P/B from 3-year average ROE, log total assets, a bad-loan indicator and 3-year credit growth, after limiting extreme observations. Only banks the market prices on their earnings enter the fit (positive ROE, P/B at most 3.0×). The fitted P/B is multiplied by book value per share. A weak fit (R² below 0.4), a fit where higher ROE does not mean a higher P/B, and large state-owned banks use the peer median P/B adjusted for ROE.
Commercial banks where book value represents real economic assets and ROE reflects sustainable profitability.
- Valuation method
- ROE-adjusted peer median
- Bank peer-model fit (R²)
- Unavailable
- Fit observations
- 5
A regression-fit statistic is unavailable for this valuation.
The peer regression was rejected (regression unavailable). This valuation uses an ROE-adjusted peer median.
We compare the sector model's value with the last close. This market has no track record here yet, so the value is shown as the model gives it.
Intrinsic value = sector model's value (no adjustment)
Earnings Quality
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/E
- 11.80
- ROE
- 10.1%
- EPS
- 3.86
- BVPS
- 40.31
- Net Margin
- 27.0%
- Rev Growth
- +11.0%
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 6,900M
- Industry
- National Commercial Banks