VNVALUEVNVALUE
Updated weekly
Back to Dashboard
Utilities sector

QPH

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Quế Phong
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
34.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
42.823
Current
34.400
Gap
+24.5%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend5.55%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS2.000
Payout ratio50.5%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
2.000
Base Growth
5.55%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
42.823
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — QPH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

64
Fair
Accrual Quality
69
Cash Conversion
50
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.23
Moderate
DSRI
0.458
GMI
0.925
AQI
1.713
SGI
1.156
DEPI
0.945
SGAI
0.891
TATA
0.077
LVGI
1.046

QPH exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.2327, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 63.8 suggests potential concerns, particularly in cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 63.8 indicates potential issues with cash conversion (49.7) and revenue recognition (0.0), which could affect financial stability.
  • The SGI of 1.1561 suggests that sales growth is outpacing industry norms, which may raise questions about sustainability.
Positive Signals
  • The DSRI of 0.4577 indicates that accounts receivable are well-managed relative to sales, which is a positive sign for liquidity.
  • The high receivables quality score of 100.0 suggests effective collection practices.
Ownership Risk

With 85.5% ownership held by Công ty Cổ phần Điện lực Trung Sơn, there is a significant concentration of control, which may limit minority shareholder influence and increase governance risks.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and revenue recognition practices while considering a cautious approach due to ownership concentration. A deeper analysis of operational sustainability is recommended.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
6.25
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.04
Excellent
Composite
71
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+63.7%
Volatility
34.8%
Max Drawdown
-24.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.16P/E
P/B2.19
P/S4.94
ROE20.3%
ROA15.5%
EPS4174.37
BVPS15539.46
Gross Margin62.4%
Net Margin60.6%
D/E0.32
Current Ratio3.52
Rev Growth15.6%
Profit Growth9.4%
EV/EBITDA6.91
Div Yield29.4%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
18.6M
Charter Capital
185.8B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for QPH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Điện lực Trung Sơn
Inst
85.5%
15.9 trieu
Phạm Thị Nguyệt
Indiv
2.9%
530.000
Cao Cự Kiều Lam
Indiv
2.0%
377.700
Nguyễn Bá Tiến
Indiv
1.4%
256.000
Trần Xuân Đại Thắng
Indiv
1.2%
220.000
Đoàn Kim Đồng
Indiv
0.3%
60.000
Lê Bật Hùng
Indiv
0.3%
51.650
Cao Cự Thu Trà
Indiv
0.1%
19.500
Board & Management
Lê Thái Hưng7.0%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Bật Hùng0.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Bằng Việt
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Thái Phong Nhã
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Bình
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Thu Hương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Khánh Quyền
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Khắc Tiệp
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Top connections
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →