VBC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Nhựa, Bao bì Vinh

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

22.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

68.561

Current

22.000

Gap

+211.6%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

41.59%

Kd(1-t)

6.35%

D/(D+E)

58.41%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.50%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

28.788

50%DCF Value

108.335

Blended Intrinsic

68.561

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VBC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2022

-2.27

Moderate

DSRI

1.054

GMI

0.904

AQI

1.005

SGI

0.968

DEPI

0.000

SGAI

1.191

TATA

0.083

LVGI

1.001

VBC exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.2682, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 40.8 out of 100 highlights significant weaknesses in cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.2682 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality score of 40.8/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.
High SGAI of 1.1909 suggests aggressive selling, which could impact future profitability.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 1.0544 indicates a slight increase in receivables, which could suggest growing sales if managed properly.
High eq_margin score of 100.0/100 reflects strong profitability on a per-unit basis, indicating potential for solid margins.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with two institutions holding 51% each, which may pose risks related to governance and minority shareholder rights. This concentration could lead to decisions that favor controlling shareholders over minority interests.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on VBC, particularly focusing on cash flow management and revenue recognition practices. Consider monitoring future earnings reports closely for signs of improvement in cash conversion and overall financial health.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.43

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.25

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+10.9%

Volatility

60.5%

Max Drawdown

-25.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.15P/E

P/B0.98

P/S0.20

ROE16.4%

ROA7.2%

EPS3741.86

BVPS23455.95

Gross Margin9.1%

Net Margin3.3%

D/E1.18

Current Ratio1.56

Rev Growth2.7%

Profit Growth0.6%

EV/EBITDA4.93

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

7.5M

Charter Capital

75.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VBC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Hợp tác kinh tế - Quân khu 3

Inst

51.0%

1.5 trieu

Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Tổng Công Ty Hợp Tác Kinh Tế

Inst

51.0%

3.8 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Nhựa An Phát Xanh

Inst

34.8%

2.6 trieu

Bùi Quốc Hân

Indiv

3.3%

99.400

Nguyễn Xuân Hải

Indiv

1.3%

39.078

Phan Trí Nghĩa

Indiv

1.0%

75.775

Phạm Thị Nguyệt

Indiv

0.7%

21.962

Phan Văn Toàn

Indiv

0.5%

38.600

Hoàng Xuân Hùng

Indiv

0.4%

10.800

Trần Thị Hồng Thái

Indiv

0.3%

9.800

Board & Management

Phan Văn Toàn0.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Hữu Sơn

Phó Giám đốc

Ngô Quang Việt

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

LÊ XUÂN THỌ

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Nguyễn Trung Kiên

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

PHẠM NGUYỆT MINH

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Minh Trang

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Ngọc Sâm

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nông Phúc Cường

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Phạm Đỗ Huy Cường

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

NHH70.9%TSD51.0%AMC51.0%HII45.1%CSI14.8%SMC14.0%HSP4.9%IME3.1%QPH2.9%ACL2.1%SBL1.7%S551.4%

Computed 12/04/2026