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Utilities sector

TNW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Nước sạch Thái Nguyên
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
12.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
10.748
Current
12.000
Gap
-10.4%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS570
Payout ratio349.0%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
570
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
10.748
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TNW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

61
Fair
Accrual Quality
68
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
37

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.79
Low Risk
DSRI
1.003
GMI
0.915
AQI
1.017
SGI
1.079
DEPI
1.031
SGAI
0.942
TATA
-0.080
LVGI
0.972

The Beneish M-Score of -2.7949 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 61.1/100, particularly low revenue quality at 37.1/100, raises concerns about the sustainability of earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality margin is 0.0/100, indicating potential issues with profitability.
  • Revenue quality score at 37.1/100 suggests significant risks in revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.7949 suggests a lower likelihood of manipulation compared to the threshold.
  • High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 83.3% of shares held by the top two shareholders, which may lead to governance risks and limited minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of concentrated ownership on governance. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious investment approach until further clarity on earnings sustainability is achieved.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
0.36
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.02
Positive
Composite
55
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+14.7%
Volatility
71.3%
Max Drawdown
-24.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.31P/E
P/B0.87
P/S0.77
ROE8.8%
ROA2.3%
EPS1163.82
BVPS13723.21
Gross Margin44.3%
Net Margin7.5%
D/E2.76
Current Ratio0.64
Rev Growth7.9%
Profit Growth507.2%
EV/EBITDA5.81
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
16.0M
Charter Capital
160.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TNW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Thái Nguyên
Indiv
42.3%
6.8 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Quốc Tế Đông Á
Inst
41.0%
6.6 trieu
Công ty CP Vbic Việt Nam
Inst
5.0%
795.100
Nguyễn Quang Mãi
Indiv
3.9%
617.546
nguyen-ba-quyet
Indiv
1.3%
206.100
Phạm Đăng Bạ
Indiv
1.2%
29.951
Board & Management
Nguyễn Quang Mãi3.9%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Bá Quyết1.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Đăng Bạ1.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Hoàng Thị Huệ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Khánh Lâm
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Minh Phương
Kế toán trưởng
Nông Quốc Bình
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Thị Thanh Hường
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Thân Hương Lan
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Xuân Học
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Tiến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Top connections
Computed 12/04/2026
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