TUG

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Lai dắt và Vận tải Cảng Hải Phòng

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

21.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

16.761

Current

21.000

Gap

-20.2%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

72.46%

Kd(1-t)

6.30%

D/(D+E)

27.54%

WACC

10.57%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.86%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

8.521

50%DCF Value

25.000

Blended Intrinsic

16.761

Value Decomposition

37%

63%

Explicit period (37%)Terminal value (63%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TUG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.14

High Risk

DSRI

0.260

GMI

0.887

AQI

8.582

SGI

1.026

DEPI

4.942

SGAI

1.157

TATA

-0.278

LVGI

1.397

TUG exhibits a moderate risk profile with a Beneish M-Score of -1.1395, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 64.6 suggests some concerns, particularly in revenue recognition, which could impact future performance.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 64.6 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition, particularly with an eq_revenue score of 3.8/100.
High DEPI of 4.9420 suggests aggressive depreciation policies that may inflate earnings.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -1.1395 is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Strong cash conversion metrics with an eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100, suggesting effective cash flow management.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, with 60.3% held by Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Hải Phòng, may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, impacting minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of concentrated ownership. A deeper analysis of cash flow sustainability is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.17

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.73

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+18.1%

Volatility

82.0%

Max Drawdown

-24.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

12.91P/E

P/B1.25

P/S1.10

ROE11.7%

ROA7.7%

EPS1627.12

BVPS16807.46

Gross Margin24.4%

Net Margin8.5%

D/E0.63

Current Ratio1.92

Rev Growth2.6%

Profit Growth9.6%

EV/EBITDA11.08

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

5.4M

Charter Capital

53.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TUG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Hải Phòng

Inst

60.3%

3.2 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Hải Minh

Inst

13.4%

717.476

KrungThai Xspring Securities Company Limited

Inst

5.9%

316.400

Phạm Việt Hà

Indiv

1.3%

35.575

Mạc Văn Luật

Indiv

1.3%

34.800

nguyen-van-dao

Indiv

0.4%

11.370

Vũ Đức Thành

Indiv

0.2%

5.800

Đỗ Ngọc Thắng

Indiv

0.1%

6.282

Board & Management

Vũ Đức Thành0.2%

Phó Giám đốc

Đỗ Ngọc Thắng0.1%

Kế toán trưởng

Nhữ Văn Nguyên

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Chu Tấn Đạt

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Dũng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đào Ngọc Thành

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Thị Vân Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Thanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Minh Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Đình Quang

Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

DVP60.3%VLG60.3%HAC60.3%PSP13.4%HAH13.4%TNH5.9%MWG5.9%

Computed 12/04/2026