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Construction sector

VLG

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần VIMC Logistics
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
8.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
10.243
Current
8.700
Gap
+17.7%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
77.18%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.19%
x
D/(D+E)
22.82%
=
WACC
10.83%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
8.300
50%DCF Value
12.186
Blended Intrinsic
10.243
Value Decomposition
38%
62%
Explicit period (38%)Terminal value (62%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VLG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

42
Weak
Accrual Quality
86
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.56
Elevated
DSRI
0.793
GMI
1.226
AQI
0.898
SGI
2.088
DEPI
1.263
SGAI
0.449
TATA
0.035
LVGI
1.688

VLG exhibits an elevated risk of financial manipulation, as indicated by a Beneish M-Score of -1.5592, which is close to the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 41.5/100 further suggests potential issues with revenue recognition and cash conversion.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.5592 is close to the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 41.5/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.7926 indicates that accounts receivable are growing at a slower rate than revenue, which is a positive sign for revenue recognition.
  • High receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of receivables.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam holding 56.7%, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence, focusing on cash flow statements and revenue recognition practices, before considering any investment in VLG.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.66
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.49
Negative
Composite
34
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-22.8%
Volatility
52.4%
Max Drawdown
-33.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
18.21P/E
P/B0.70
P/S0.32
ROE3.8%
ROA2.6%
EPS455.78
BVPS11806.26
Gross Margin3.3%
Net Margin1.7%
D/E0.63
Current Ratio2.00
Rev Growth108.8%
Profit Growth-77.3%
EV/EBITDA8.41
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
14.2M
Charter Capital
142.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Dịch vụ vận tải
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VLG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam
Inst
56.7%
8.1 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Hải Phòng
Inst
1.4%
200.000
Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Đà Nẵng
Inst
1.4%
200.000
Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Sài Gòn
Inst
0.8%
0
Công ty Cổ phần Đại lý Hàng hải Việt Nam
Inst
0.4%
50.000
Board & Management
Phạm Bá Ngân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trương Văn Thái
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Thu Hiền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Chung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Thanh Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thành Giang
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hồng Thái
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Mai Lê Lợi
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Thị Loan
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Huế
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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