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VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnUPCOMCT
26.000
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
−11.5%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
26.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
23.020

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.110
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.97%
Ke
11.97%
x
E/(D+E)
98.94%
+
Kd(1-t)
8.72%
x
D/(D+E)
1.06%
=
WACC
11.94%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→26.000
Calibrated value vs last close→−11.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
23.020
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.94%high risk: no
Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow199.8 triệuone off strip ratio: 1.93

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
9.9%22.98822.98822.98822.98822.988
10.9%22.98722.98722.98722.98722.988
11.9%22.98622.98622.98622.98722.987
12.9%22.98622.98622.98622.98622.986
13.9%22.98622.98622.98622.98622.986
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3920.30.50.40.40.50.40.7691111
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.120.020.20.030.050.20.10.44762
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·390.020.30.30.30.30.30.30.32248
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·00.0211111112222
Net Inventories
·0000000000.20.40.30.7
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·0000000000.20.40.30.7
Other current assets
·0.08000.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.20.2
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.20.2
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·0171718181818191922178178178
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000.10.2333177
Tangible fixed assets
·00000000.10.222117
Intagible fixed assets
·0000000001.01.01.061
Investment in properties
·01717181818181919191751750
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0000000000002
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000002
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000000000000−0.4
Other non-current assets
·00.000.000.010.0100000.20.10.030.05
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·00.000.000.010.0100000.20.100.05
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·39191818181819192028187189189
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·25555666712125120116
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·25535363312125119115
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0.4020203006444545
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·000.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.9
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·00.0302030.244000.30.5
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0002020340000.2
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·37141313131313131315626973
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·37141313131313131315626973
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·90909090909090909090909090
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·2222222222211
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−55−78−79−79−79−79−80−80−79−77−30−23−19
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·39191818181819192028187189189
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·90909090909090909090909090

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
0
Poor
Accrual Quality
0
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 18.52 · 100th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +22.65
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
10.000
GMI
0.953
AQI
0.000
SGI
10.000
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.072
TATA
1.000
LVGI
0.138

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−1.8910th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.0%2nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.61×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The accounting signals are mixed but raise notable red flags: the Beneish M-Score is 18.5195 and ranks at the 100th percentile against Vietnamese peers (YoY change +22.65), driven by very high DSRI (10.0000) and SGI (10.0000) and a TATA of 1.0000. Offsetting strengths include an Altman Z-Score of 45.26 (distance from distress) and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 (relatively strong fundamentals).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 18.5195 (100th percentile vs Vietnam; YoY change +22.65): the score measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation signals relative to peers and shows a large upward move year-over-year (note the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferable; use the peer percentile and trajectory).
  • DSRI (Days' Sales Receivable Index) = 10.0000: this component measures receivables growth relative to sales and a value this large signals receivables/sales have expanded dramatically versus the prior year.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 10.0000: this measures sales growth; an extreme value indicates exceptionally rapid revenue growth versus the prior year, which can stress recognition and collectibility.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 1.0000: this measures accrual intensity; a value of 1.0000 indicates accruals are very large relative to assets in the period reported.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -1.89 (10th percentile vs Vietnam): this measures the degree to which reported profits convert into cash; a negative ratio at the 10th percentile indicates profits are not turning into operating cash.
  • Earnings Quality Score = 0.0/100 and all subcomponents (accruals, cash conversion, receivables, margin, etc.) = 0.0/100: these scores indicate low measured earnings quality on the applied metrics.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 45.26 (safe zone): this measures bankruptcy distance; a very high value indicates low bankruptcy risk under the Altman framework.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 7/9: this measures nine signals of accounting and operating strength; a 7 indicates generally strong fundamentals on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.0% of total assets (2nd percentile vs Vietnam): this measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables outside the normal trade cycle; a 0.0% figure indicates those non-trade receivables are negligible in the balance sheet.
  • No accumulated statutory net-loss trigger for delisting on HOSE/HNX applies here: although accumulated losses are 0.61x paid-in capital, the company trades on UPCoM where the HOSE/HNX statutory-listing-loss test is not applied.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated among three individuals: Lâm Di Linh 32.0%, Brook Colin Taylor 25.5% and Ho Thi My Diem 24.3%, together holding ~82% of shares. Director-deal registrations (7 purchase registrations, 0 sale registrations, 3,050,583 shares registered across 7 traders with three registrations missing volumes) show insider/related-party intent to buy rather than sell; registrations are declarations of intended trades, not executed transactions.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the change in trade receivables and the DSRI calculation: inspect the receivables and revenue notes and the receivables aging schedule for FY2024–FY2025 to reconcile why DSRI = 10.0000.
  • Reconcile accrual components to TATA = 1.0000: examine the consolidated statement of cash flows and the reconciliation from profit to operating cash flow and the detailed movements in receivables, payables, inventory and other accrual lines for the period showing large accruals.
  • Verify cash conversion = -1.89: compare operating cash flow (continuing operations) to net profit in the cash flow statement and the parent profit note for the three-year window used.
  • Review related-party and other receivables / prepayments notes to confirm the 0.0% of total assets labeled as receivables outside the trade cycle and to understand the nature and terms (maturities, interest, collateral) if any such balances exist.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
45.26
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.92
Above 1
Composite
6
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden0.99×Op. Margin0.62×Turnover1.24×Leverage1.04=ROE62.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
+2383.3%
Volatility
166.8%
Max Drawdown
−52.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
49.27P/E
P/B
30.95
P/S
24.03
ROE
91.6%
ROA
80.6%
EPS
473
BVPS
753
Gross Margin
64.6%
Net Margin
48.8%
D/E
0.01
Current Ratio
25.69
EV/EBITDA
38.73
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
49.4M
Charter Capital
494B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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