VNZ

Technology

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn VNG

Truyền thôngCT

320.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

1.275.499

Current

320.000

Gap

+298.6%

ModelDCF PE BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Technology

Defaulted to technology (no specific sector mapping found)

ModelDCF + P/E Blend

Intrinsic = 60% x DCF Value + 40% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF uses the slowest growth decay (0.05) recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

16.67%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

83.33%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend8.00%

Growth decays 5%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Max fair P/E→16x

Valuation

60%DCF Value

1.275.499

40%P/E Value

—

Blended Intrinsic

1.275.499

Value Decomposition

39%

61%

Explicit period (39%)Terminal value (61%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VNZ

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.14

Low Risk

DSRI

1.117

GMI

1.011

AQI

0.877

SGI

1.174

DEPI

0.783

SGAI

0.998

TATA

-0.180

LVGI

1.036

VNZ exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly a Beneish M-Score of -3.141, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 41.1 suggests potential issues with revenue recognition and profit margins, which could pose risks in the context of Vietnamese accounting practices.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -3.141, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
Earnings quality score of 41.1/100, particularly low scores in eq_margin (0.0/100) and eq_revenue (9.7/100), signaling significant concerns regarding revenue recognition and profitability.

Positive Signals

Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100, indicating effective management of accounts receivable.
Ownership concentration with Vng Limited holding 61.1%, suggesting stability in decision-making and potential alignment of interests.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by Vng Limited (61.1%) and other institutional investors may reduce liquidity and increase the risk of governance issues, particularly if minority shareholders are not adequately represented.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VNZ's earnings quality and revenue recognition practices, considering a cautious approach until improvements in financial transparency and profitability metrics are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.53

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.42

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-3.1%

Volatility

31.8%

Max Drawdown

-29.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

-60.91P/E

P/B15.73

P/S0.94

ROE-24.0%

ROA-1.6%

EPS-5746.03

BVPS22249.73

Gross Margin36.5%

Net Margin-1.5%

D/E10.67

Current Ratio0.83

Rev Growth17.4%

Profit Growth84.4%

EV/EBITDA10.37

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

29.4M

Charter Capital

297.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Truyền thông

Industry (ICB L3)

Truyền thông

Sub-industry

Giải trí & Truyền thông

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VNZ — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Vng Limited

Inst

61.1%

17.6 trieu

Vng Limited

Inst

49.0%

14.1 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Công Nghệ Bigv

Inst

21.3%

6.1 trieu

Lê Hồng Minh

Indiv

8.8%

2.5 trieu

Vương Quang Khải

Indiv

5.4%

1.6 trieu

Nguyễn Lê Thành

Indiv

0.6%

182.855

Mirae Asset Securities Limited

Inst

0.5%

Trương Thị Thanh

Indiv

0.3%

76.156

Mirae Asset Good Company Investment Fund #21-1

Inst

0.1%

Top connections

MEL10.0%SD68.8%CTA1.0%

Computed 12/04/2026