APH

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn An Phát Holdings

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

5.640

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

13.313

Current

5.640

Gap

+136.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

45.98%

Kd(1-t)

5.89%

D/(D+E)

54.02%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.09%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

12.307

50%DCF Value

14.318

Blended Intrinsic

13.313

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — APH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.65

Low Risk

DSRI

1.113

GMI

0.897

AQI

1.414

SGI

0.757

DEPI

0.922

SGAI

0.959

TATA

-0.039

LVGI

0.965

The Beneish M-Score of -2.6534 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it falls well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which raise concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 50.9/100 indicates average earnings quality, with particularly low scores in receivables (0.0/100) and revenue recognition (32.0/100), suggesting potential issues in revenue reporting.
The DSRI of 1.1133 suggests that accounts receivable are growing faster than revenue, which may indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

The GMI of 0.8970 is below 1, which typically suggests lower risk of earnings manipulation.
The eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash conversion relative to earnings, which is a positive sign for liquidity.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Công ty TNHH Igg Usa Việt Nam, holds a significant 27.0% stake, which may lead to concentrated control and potential governance issues. The presence of multiple individual shareholders with smaller stakes could dilute accountability.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's revenue recognition practices and assess the implications of low receivables quality. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach, considering potential volatility in earnings and governance risks.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.24

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.76

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-11.2%

Volatility

26.9%

Max Drawdown

-21.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.41P/E

P/B0.54

P/S0.13

ROE6.5%

ROA1.3%

EPS670.52

BVPS10370.41

Gross Margin14.0%

Net Margin1.5%

D/E1.17

Current Ratio1.39

Rev Growth-24.3%

Profit Growth37.4%

EV/EBITDA2.61

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

243.9M

Charter Capital

2438.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for APH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH Igg Usa Việt Nam

Inst

27.0%

52.7 trieu

nguyen-le-trung

Indiv

2.3%

5.6 trieu

Phạm Hoàng Việt

Indiv

1.8%

4.3 trieu

Phạm Hoàng Việt

Indiv

1.7%

3.5 trieu

Phạm Ánh Dương

Indiv

1.5%

3.7 trieu

Đinh Xuân Cường

Indiv

1.0%

2.0 trieu

Phạm Đỗ Huy Cường

Indiv

0.8%

1.9 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Tiện

Indiv

0.4%

875.000

Trần Thị Thoản

Indiv

0.2%

500.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Lê Trung2.3%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Ánh Dương1.5%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đinh Xuân Cường1.0%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Đỗ Huy Cường0.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Giám đốc Tài chính

Nguyễn Thị Tiện0.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nirav Sudhir Patel

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Lê Thăng Long

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hương

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Lê Thăng Long

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Thị Hoa

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thúy Nga

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Văn Tuấn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Hồ Thị Hòe

Kế toán trưởng

Lim Heon Young

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Ngọc Hoàng Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

DTT15.6%AAA2.3%FMC2 links CID1.5%

Computed 12/04/2026