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Utilities sector

BGE

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần BCG Energy
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
3.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
4.606
Current
3.400
Gap
+35.5%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

Distressed Valuation
No Dividends Or Earnings
BVPS
9.211
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value
9.211

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BGE

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

22
Poor
Accrual Quality
48
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-4.21
Low Risk
DSRI
0.899
GMI
0.968
AQI
0.951
SGI
1.135
DEPI
0.866
SGAI
6.846
TATA
-0.145
LVGI
1.047

BGE exhibits several concerning financial metrics indicating potential manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -4.2061, well below the manipulation threshold. The earnings quality score of 22.0/100 further highlights significant issues in cash conversion and receivables management.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -4.2061 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 22.0/100 suggests poor earnings quality, with an eq_receivables score of 0.0/100 indicating no effective management of receivables.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.8987 indicates a lower rate of inventory growth compared to sales, which can be a positive sign in terms of inventory management.
  • GMI of 0.9680 suggests that gross margins are stable, which can be a positive indicator of operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Bamboo Capital, holds a significant 47.7% stake, which may lead to concentrated decision-making and potential conflicts of interest. However, the presence of institutional investors may provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor BGE's financial disclosures and operational performance. Consider waiting for improved earnings quality metrics and a more favorable Beneish M-Score before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.61
Distress Zone

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
-4.79P/E
P/B0.52
P/S2.74
ROE-10.3%
ROA-3.9%
EPS-1001.43
BVPS9211.18
Gross Margin49.1%
Net Margin-57.2%
D/E1.05
Current Ratio2.28
Rev Growth13.5%
Profit Growth-1935.7%
EV/EBITDA15.00
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
730.0M
Charter Capital
7300.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BGE — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Bamboo Capital
Inst
47.7%
348.3 trieu
Công ty TNHH Mua bán nợ Nam Sài Gòn
Inst
6.1%
44.6 trieu
Công Ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Mua Bán Nợ Sài Gòn
Inst
5.3%
38.4 trieu
Huỳnh Thị Kim Tuyến
Indiv
2.9%
21.0 trieu
Phạm Minh Tuấn
Indiv
1.4%
10.0 trieu
Lê Thanh Tùng
Indiv
0.4%
3.0 trieu
Lưu Khánh Trường
Indiv
0.4%
3.0 trieu
Đào Chí Thanh
Indiv
0.1%
1.0 trieu
Nguyễn Mạnh Chiến
Indiv
0.1%
1.0 trieu
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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