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Cyclicals sector

BKC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Khoáng sản Bắc Kạn
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Khai khoángCT
21.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
8.996
Current
21.600
Gap
-58.4%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA30.62B
Fair EV/EBITDA7.8x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
30.62B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
7.8x
-
Net Debt
26.43B
=
Equity Value
8.996
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BKC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

23
Poor
Accrual Quality
8
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
9

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.08
High Risk
DSRI
0.906
GMI
0.640
AQI
0.608
SGI
0.909
DEPI
3.732
SGAI
1.012
TATA
0.341
LVGI
0.960

BKC exhibits several concerning financial metrics indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -1.0769, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 23.3/100 reflects significant weaknesses in cash conversion and margin metrics, raising further concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.0769 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 23.3/100 suggests poor earnings quality, particularly with eq_cash_conv at 0.0/100 and eq_margin at 0.0/100.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.9063 indicates a lower risk of revenue manipulation as it suggests that inventory growth is in line with sales growth.
  • High eq_receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, suggesting that the company is effectively collecting outstanding debts.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated with institutional investors holding a significant 60.1% of shares, which may provide stability but could also lead to potential conflicts of interest if management prioritizes institutional interests over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor BKC's financial disclosures and consider a cautious approach due to elevated risks of earnings manipulation. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.91
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.38
Negative
Composite
14
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-17.7%
Volatility
58.3%
Max Drawdown
-61.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.57P/E
P/B1.55
P/S0.98
ROE32.4%
ROA17.1%
EPS3877.34
BVPS13904.04
Gross Margin24.7%
Net Margin17.6%
D/E0.76
Current Ratio1.63
Rev Growth-9.1%
Profit Growth75.5%
EV/EBITDA4.46
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
23.5M
Charter Capital
234.8B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Khai khoáng
Sub-industry
Khai khoáng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BKC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH Tập Đoàn Thiên Mã
Inst
25.3%
6.0 trieu
Công ty TNHH Dịch Vụ Anb
Inst
17.6%
2.1 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ Đầu tư Sài Gòn - Hà Nội
Inst
17.4%
2.0 trieu
Đặng Thanh Vân
Indiv
5.4%
1.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Kim Loại Màu Bắc Bộ
Inst
4.8%
561.500
Phan Hoàng Phương Thảo
Indiv
4.1%
480.600
Nguyễn Huy Hoàn
Indiv
2.5%
584.400
Mai Văn Bản
Indiv
2.5%
575.000
tong yang vietnam privatisation trust fund 1
Inst
2.3%
269.200
Board & Management
Nguyễn Huy Hoàn2.5%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Văn Quyền
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đinh Văn Hiến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thế Phòng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Gia Hạnh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Bùi Đức Hùng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Đình Thắng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Trần Nhất
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Phi Hổ
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Vũ
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Mai Thanh Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Top connections
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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