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Cyclicals sector

SAV

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Hợp tác Kinh tế và Xuất nhập khẩu Savimex
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Lâm nghiệp và GiấyCT
13.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
15.397
Current
13.300
Gap
+15.8%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA65.14B
Fair EV/EBITDA5.0x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
65.14B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
5.0x
-
Net Debt
-81.21B
=
Equity Value
15.397
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SAV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

65
Fair
Accrual Quality
55
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
91
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.09
Low Risk
DSRI
1.132
GMI
0.895
AQI
0.723
SGI
0.994
DEPI
0.980
SGAI
0.976
TATA
-0.118
LVGI
1.040

SAV's Beneish M-Score of -3.0929 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 64.7 suggests potential issues, particularly in revenue recognition and margin quality, which warrant further scrutiny.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 for eq_margin and eq_revenue, indicating significant concerns about revenue recognition practices.
  • The DSRI of 1.1318 suggests that accounts receivable are growing faster than revenue, which may indicate potential revenue inflation.
Positive Signals
  • The cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings, which is a positive sign for liquidity.
  • The GMI of 0.8953 suggests that gross margins are stable, which is a positive indicator in the context of the Vietnamese market.
Ownership Risk

E-land Asia Holdings Pte., Ltd holds a substantial 48.0% stake, indicating potential influence over company decisions. However, the concentration of ownership could also pose risks related to minority shareholder interests.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider conducting further due diligence on management's integrity. A cautious approach is advised given the mixed signals from earnings quality metrics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.50
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.98
Negative
Composite
44
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-27.3%
Volatility
33.9%
Max Drawdown
-33.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
36.74P/E
P/B1.01
P/S0.33
ROE2.6%
ROA1.3%
EPS363.32
BVPS13283.01
Gross Margin17.0%
Net Margin0.9%
D/E1.07
Current Ratio1.34
Rev Growth-0.6%
Profit Growth-82.3%
EV/EBITDA3.08
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
26.4M
Charter Capital
264.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
Sub-industry
Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SAV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
E-land Asia Holdings Pte., Ltd
Inst
48.0%
12.7 trieu
Đặng Bình Minh
Indiv
4.9%
1.1 trieu
Nguyễn Thanh Anh
Indiv
4.8%
1.2 trieu
Pxp Vietnam Fund Limited
Inst
4.7%
471.650
Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Limited
Inst
4.6%
459.500
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ đầu tư Chứng khoán An Phúc
Inst
4.6%
458.920
tong yang vietnam privatisation trust fund 1
Inst
4.5%
450.000
Quỹ tầm nhìn SSI
Inst
4.3%
425.270
Công ty Cổ phần DANA Ford
Inst
3.5%
345.184
Nguyễn Thị Khánh Linh
Indiv
2.6%
516.500
nguyen-thanh-hai
Indiv
1.7%
459.457
Bùi Ngọc Quới
Indiv
0.9%
88.145
Jung Sung Kwan
Indiv
0.6%
121.640
Công ty TNHH Sao Ánh Mai
Inst
0.4%
42.100
Lê Toàn
Indiv
0.3%
28.670
Lê Minh Trang
Indiv
0.3%
27.160
Phạm Ngọc Sinh
Indiv
0.3%
69.402
Trần Văn Trí
Indiv
0.2%
18.750
Ngô Văn Ích
Indiv
0.1%
12.000
nguyen-nhan-nghia
Indiv
0.1%
10.000
Nguyễn Thị Thu
Indiv
0.1%
10.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thanh Sơn4.6%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Jung Sung Kwan0.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thị Thanh Thủy
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Huỳnh Thị Thu Sa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Như Tùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Mai Thị Huyền Thanh
Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Thị Yến Trang
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Văn Anh Tuấn
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Lee Eun Hong
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thu Yến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Kim Dong Ju
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lim Hong Jin
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Kim Hyun Jun
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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