VNVALUEVNVALUE
Updated weekly
Back to Dashboard
Consumer sector

BMV

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Bột mỳ Vinafood 1
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
4.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
17.327
Current
4.800
Gap
+261.0%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
51.77%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.96%
x
D/(D+E)
48.23%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend2.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF28.44B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
28.44B
Growth Rate
2.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
17.327
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BMV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

69
Fair
Accrual Quality
71
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
96
Margin Stability
47
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.83
Low Risk
DSRI
0.727
GMI
0.937
AQI
1.687
SGI
0.976
DEPI
0.916
SGAI
1.124
TATA
-0.072
LVGI
0.867

BMV exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.8322, which is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 69.0 suggests reasonable performance, the low revenue quality score of 0.0 raises significant concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.8322 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0 suggests that reported revenues may not be reliable.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 69.0/100 indicates generally acceptable earnings performance.
  • Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 reflects strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated with Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Bắc holding 97.8%, which may limit minority shareholder influence and increase the risk of decisions that favor the majority shareholder.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and the sustainability of earnings before considering an investment in BMV.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.43
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.47
Negative
Composite
55
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-49.1%
Volatility
80.7%
Max Drawdown
-52.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
31.55P/E
P/B0.47
P/S0.18
ROE1.5%
ROA0.8%
EPS152.15
BVPS10284.75
Gross Margin6.2%
Net Margin0.6%
D/E0.72
Current Ratio1.93
Rev Growth-2.2%
Profit Growth88.5%
EV/EBITDA14.91
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
24.2M
Charter Capital
242.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BMV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Bắc
Inst
97.8%
23.7 trieu
Board & Management
Phạm Bình Nguyên
Phó Giám đốc
Phạm Văn Sơn
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lưu Anh Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc
Lê Đình Hiệp
Kế toán trưởng/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Phùng Thanh Long
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Hiểu
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Thuyên
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Đại Quyền
Phó Giám đốc
Top connections
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →